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Blog from Moneta Markets

Currencies Shift, Markets Move. Daily Market Update 27th May 2025

Currencies Dance, Markets Move: May 27, 2025 Global financial markets on May 27, 2025, are navigating a complex landscape of US fiscal concerns, central bank policy divergence, and geopolitical tensions. The US Dollar (DXY at 98.80) remains under pressure near a one-month low due to fears surrounding Trump’s $3.8T tax bill and a Moody’s credit downgrade, lifting AUD/USD to 0.6490 and GBP/USD to a 39-month high near 1.3570. Strong Japanese inflation data (Services PPI at 3.1%) and hawkish BoJ signals propel the Yen, pushing USD/JPY to a one-month low of 142.38. WTI crude steadies at $61.25 amid OPEC+ output concerns, while gold holds at $3,340 and silver at $33.20, supported by safe-haven demand. Key US data releases, including Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, and upcoming FOMC minutes, alongside the RBNZ rate decision, will drive market volatility. Australian Dollar Subdued Near 0.6490 Current Level: AUD/USD trades near 0.6490, down 0.1%, after hitting a six-month high of 0.6537. Market Dynamics: China’s Industrial Profits rose 3% YoY in April, up from 2.6%, supporting AUD due to strong trade ties, but RBA’s dovish stance (25 bps cut to 3.85%) caps gains. USD weakens (DXY at 98.80) amid US fiscal concerns (Trump’s $3.8T tax bill) and Moody’s Aa1 downgrade. US-EU tariff delay (July 9) and US-China trade truce bolster risk sentiment. US Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence (today) are key, with Australia-China Darwin Port tensions adding volatility. Technical Outlook: Resistance at 0.6537; support at 0.6456 (9-day EMA). Bullish RSI above 50 favors upside to 0.6687. GBP/USD Near 39-Month High at 1.3570 Current Level: GBP/USD trades near 1.3570, up 0.1%, close to a 39-month high of 1.3593. Key Drivers: Hot UK CPI (3.5% YoY) and Retail Sales reduce BoE rate-cut bets (38 bps in 2025), lifting GBP. USD weakens due to US fiscal deficit fears and US-EU tariff delay (July 9). FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and US PCE Price Index (Friday) will shape Fed rate-cut expectations (74% chance for September). BoE’s June meeting remains critical. Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.3632; support at 1.3451. Bullish RSI above 60 targets 1.3723, per X posts. Japanese Yen Hits Monthly High Current Level: USD/JPY trades near 142.38, down 0.3%, a one-month low. Market Dynamics: Japan’s Services PPI rose 3.1% YoY, reinforcing BoJ rate-hike bets (Ueda’s 2% target focus), boosting JPY. Geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine, Gaza) and US-Japan trade optimism enhance safe-haven demand. USD slumps on fiscal concerns (Moody’s projects 134% debt-to-GDP by 2035) and dovish Fed signals. Tokyo CPI (Friday) and US data (Durable Goods, PCE) are pivotal. Technical Outlook: Support at 142.00; resistance at 143.00. Bearish RSI below 50 eyes 141.00. NZD/USD Nears 0.6000 Current Level: NZD/USD trades near 0.6000, up 0.2%. Key Drivers: USD weakness and US-EU trade truce support NZD, but RBNZ’s expected 25 bps cut to 3.25% (Wednesday) may cap gains. US fiscal concerns (Trump’s tax bill) and Fed caution (Kashkari’s stagflation warning) pressure USD. US Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods Orders (today) will influence sentiment, with RBNZ’s OCR outlook critical. Technical Outlook: Resistance at 0.6050; support at 0.5950. Bullish RSI above 50 suggests upside potential. WTI Crude Steady at $61.25 Current Level: WTI crude trades near $61.25, flat. Market Dynamics: US-EU tariff delay and Gaza tensions support WTI, but OPEC+ output hike concerns (+411,000 bpd for July) and US-Iran nuclear talk progress cap gains. EIA inventory build (+1.328M barrels) adds bearish pressure. OPEC+ meeting (May 31) and US Durable Goods Orders (today) are key. Fed’s cautious stance impacts USD and oil. Technical Outlook: Resistance at $62.00; support at $60.00. Neutral RSI near 50 awaits OPEC+ clarity. Gold Holds at $3,340 Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,340, up 0.2%. Key Drivers: US fiscal concerns (Moody’s downgrade) and geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine, Gaza) support safe-haven demand, offsetting US-EU trade optimism. Fed rate-cut bets and USD weakness bolster XAU/USD. FOMC minutes and US PCE data will drive direction, with Chinese gold purchases as a tailwind. Technical Outlook: Resistance at $3,346; support at $3,260. Bullish RSI above 50 eyes $3,400. Economic Data and Policy Focus Today’s Data: US Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index will influence USD. FOMC minutes (Wednesday), US Prelim Q1 GDP (Thursday), and PCE Price Index (Friday) are critical for Fed rate-cut timing. Tokyo CPI (Friday) will shape BoJ expectations. RBNZ’s rate decision (Wednesday) is key for NZD. Geopolitical Developments: Russia’s drone attack on Ukraine and Gaza strikes (38 killed) boost safe-haven JPY, gold, and silver. US-Iran nuclear talks show tentative progress, impacting WTI. US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s $3.8T tax bill, pending Senate vote, raises deficit fears (Moody’s projects 9% GDP deficit by 2035). Fed officials (Kashkari, Goolsbee) highlight stagflation risks. US-China Trade Deal and Geopolitical Risks Trade Status: US-EU tariff delay (July 9) and US-Japan trade talks (G7 target) ease tensions. US-China truce faces strain from Huawei chip restrictions, with China’s 3% industrial profit growth signaling resilience. Australia-China Darwin Port lease tensions add AUD volatility. Geopolitical Tensions: Russia-Ukraine war escalation, Gaza operations, and US-Iran talk uncertainties drive safe-haven flows. Outlook On May 27, 2025, USD weakness (DXY at 98.80) lifts AUD/USD (0.6490), GBP/USD (1.3570), and NZD/USD (0.6000), while pressuring USD/JPY (142.38). WTI ($61.25) steadies, with gold ($3,340) and silver ($33.20) supported by safe-haven demand. US data, FOMC minutes, and RBNZ’s rate decision will drive volatility, with US fiscal concerns and geopolitical risks in focus. Stay tuned for further updates.

Yen Surges, Pound Shines: May 26, 2025

Global financial markets on May 26, 2025, are driven by US fiscal concerns, central bank policy divergence, and easing trade tensions. The US Dollar (DXY at 99.70) hits a one-month low amid deficit fears from Trump’s $4T tax bill, lifting GBP/USD to a multi-year high above 1.3550 and pressuring USD/CAD below 1.3700. Japanese Yen strengthens (USD/JPY near 142.70) on BoJ rate-hike bets and US-Japan trade optimism. WTI crude holds above $61.50, while gold dips to $3,335 on reduced trade war fears. US Durable Goods Orders and FOMC minutes are key this week. Gold Dips to $3,335 Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,335, down 0.4%. Market Dynamics: Easing US-EU trade fears (tariff delay) reduce safe-haven demand, pressuring gold. US fiscal concerns (Moody’s downgrade) and Fed rate-cut bets support XAU/USD. Russia-Ukraine escalation and Gaza tensions limit losses. FOMC minutes and US PCE data are key, with Chinese gold purchases as a tailwind. Technical Outlook: Support at $3,260; resistance at $3,346. Bullish RSI above 50 favors upside to $3,400. Japanese Yen Hits Monthly High Current Level: USD/JPY trades near 142.70, down 0.2%, with JPY at a monthly high. Market Dynamics: Hot Japanese CPI (3.6% YoY) and BoJ rate-hike bets (Uchida’s hawkish stance) bolster JPY. US-Japan trade deal hopes (Ishiba’s G7 target) and geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine, Gaza) enhance safe-haven demand. USD weakens due to US fiscal concerns (Moody’s Aa1 downgrade) and dovish Fed expectations (two cuts in 2025). Tokyo CPI (Friday) and G7 trade talks are focal points. Technical Outlook: Support at 142.00; resistance at 143.10. Bearish RSI below 50 favors downside to 141.00. GBP/USD Soars Above 1.3550 Current Level: GBP/USD trades near 1.3560, a February 2022 high, up 0.3%. Key Drivers: Strong UK Retail Sales and hot April CPI (3.5% YoY) reduce BoE rate-cut bets, boosting GBP. USD weakens amid US deficit fears ($4T tax bill) and Fed rate-cut expectations (74% chance for September). FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and US PCE Price Index (Friday) will shape USD sentiment, with BoE’s June meeting in focus. Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.3632; support at 1.3451. Bullish RSI above 60 signals momentum, with 1.3723 as a target USD/CAD Drops Below 1.3700 Current Level: USD/CAD trades near 1.3690, a YTD low, down 0.3%. Market Dynamics: USD selling persists due to US fiscal concerns and dovish Fed signals. Hot Canadian CPI reduces BoC June rate-cut odds, supporting CAD despite softer WTI ($61.50). Canadian Retail Sales (today) and US Durable Goods Orders (Tuesday) are key. Easing US-EU trade tensions (tariff delay to July 9) add CAD support. Technical Outlook: Support at 1.3600; resistance at 1.3800. Bearish RSI below 50 suggests further downside to 1.3500. WTI Crude Above $61.50 Current Level: WTI crude trades near $61.50, up 0.2%. Market Dynamics: Easing US-EU trade tensions (tariff delay to July 9) and Gaza escalation fears support WTI. OPEC+ output hike concerns (+411,000 bpd for July) and EIA inventory build (+1.328M barrels) cap gains. US-Iran nuclear talks (limited progress) sustain supply risks. US Durable Goods Orders and FOMC minutes will influence USD and oil. Technical Outlook: Resistance at $62.00; support at $60.00. RSI above 50 suggests cautious bullishness, per Reuters. EUR/USD Holds Above 1.1300 Current Level: EUR/USD trades near 1.1315, up 0.1%. Key Drivers: USD weakness and lower Treasury yields (30-year at 5.03%) lift EUR, despite weak Eurozone PMI (Composite 49.5). German Q1 GDP (flat) and ECB’s dovish signals (Vujčić’s 2% target by 2026) cap gains. Trump’s EU tariff delay (July 9) reduces trade war fears, supporting EUR. FOMC minutes and US PCE data will drive direction. Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.1425; support at 1.1200. RSI near 57 maintains bullish bias, with US data critical. Economic Data and Policy Focus Today’s Data: Canadian Retail Sales and US Durable Goods Orders (Tuesday) kick off a data-heavy week. US Prelim GDP (Thursday), PCE Price Index (Friday), and FOMC minutes (Wednesday) will shape Fed rate-cut expectations (74% chance for September). Tokyo CPI (Friday) will influence BoJ rate-hike bets. Geopolitical Developments: Russia’s massive Ukraine attack and Gaza strikes (38 killed) boost safe-haven JPY, gold, and silver. US-Iran nuclear talk uncertainties and US sanctions threats add volatility. US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s $4T tax bill, passed by the House, awaits Senate approval, raising deficit fears (Moody’s projects 134% debt-to-GDP by 2035). US-China Trade Deal and Geopolitical Risks Trade Status: US-EU tariff delay (July 9) and US-Japan trade optimism (Ishiba’s G7 goal) ease trade war fears. US-China truce (US: 30%, China: 10%) faces strain from Huawei chip restrictions, with China’s Li Qiang signaling new policy tools, including “unconventional measures.” Geopolitical Tensions: Russia-Ukraine escalation, Gaza operations, and US-Iran talk uncertainties drive safe-haven flows. Outlook On May 26, 2025, USD weakness (DXY at 99.70) lifts GBP/USD (1.3560) and EUR/USD (1.1315), while pressuring USD/CAD (1.3690) and USD/JPY (142.70). WTI ($61.50) gains on geopolitical risks, but gold ($3,335) dips on trade optimism. Silver ($33.15) holds steady. US data (Durable Goods, GDP, PCE), FOMC minutes, and Tokyo CPI will drive volatility, with US fiscal concerns and geopolitical tensions in focus. Stay tuned for further updates.

Trade Deal Optimism Surges: May 12, 2025

Moneta Markets Daily Global Market Update – 12th May, 2025 Trade Deal Optimism Surges: May 12, 2025 Global financial markets on May 12, 2025, are buoyed by optimism surrounding a US-China trade deal, though uncertainties over tariff reductions temper gains. Gold drops to a one-week low near $3,253, while EUR/USD holds above 1.1200, awaiting trade deal details. AUD/USD rises on trade optimism, and USD/JPY remains firm as JPY weakens. WTI crude nears $61.00, supported by eased demand concerns but capped by OPEC+ output plans. US inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s Thursday appearance are key catalysts this week. Gold Drops to One-Week Low Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,253, down to a one-week low. Market Dynamics: US-China trade deal optimism (Switzerland talks) and easing US recession fears reduce safe-haven demand, pressuring gold. A firm USD (DXY at 100.60) post-Fed’s hawkish pause (rates at 4.25%-4.50%) adds headwinds. Geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine talks, Middle East tensions, India-Pakistan clashes) limit losses, with traders awaiting the US-China joint statement. US inflation data and Powell’s speech (Thursday) are critical. Technical Outlook: Support at $3,252; resistance at $3,317. Bearish oscillators suggest downside, with a break below $3,200 targeting monthly lows. EUR/USD Holds Above 1.1200 Current Level: EUR/USD trades near 1.1210, above a one-month low. Key Drivers: Modest USD strength and US-China trade optimism weigh on EUR, but ECB’s June rate-cut bets (25 bps) and Eurozone PMI stability provide support. Geopolitical risks and trade deal uncertainties limit losses. Technical breakdown below 100-period SMA signals bearish bias, with US inflation data (Tuesday) and Powell’s comments key. Technical Outlook: Support at 1.1200 (200-period SMA); resistance at 1.1250. Bearish oscillators favor downside, with 1.1100 in sight if 1.1200 breaks. AUD/USD Advances to 0.6420 Current Level: AUD/USD trades near 0.6420, building momentum. Market Dynamics: US-China trade deal progress (Bessent and He Lifeng’s “substantial progress”) boosts AUD, given Australia’s trade ties with China. Weaker USD (DXY at 100.60) supports gains, despite China’s CPI decline (-0.1% YoY) and PPI contraction (-2.7% YoY). RBA rate-cut bets for May and upcoming Westpac Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) influence sentiment. Technical Outlook: Resistance at 0.6515; support at 0.6420 (nine-day EMA). RSI above 50 signals bullish bias, with trade statement as a catalyst. USD/JPY Firm Near 146.00 Current Level: USD/JPY trades near 145.80, steady above 145.55. Influencing Factors: JPY weakens as US-China trade optimism (joint statement awaited) reduces safe-haven demand. USD strength from Fed’s hawkish stance and Japan’s mixed data (Household Spending +2.1% YoY, real wages -2.1%) support USD/JPY. BoJ rate-hike bets for 2025 limit JPY losses, with US inflation data key. Technical View: Resistance at 146.80; support at 145.55 (50% Fibonacci). Bullish oscillators favor upside, with 147.00 as the next target. WTI Nears Two-Week High at $61.00 Current Level: WTI crude trades near $60.90, just below $61.00. Key Drivers: US-China trade deal optimism eases demand concerns, boosting prices after a 2.032 million barrel US inventory drawdown. OPEC+ output hike plans and USD strength cap gains. Geopolitical risks (Middle East, India-Pakistan) and US sanctions on Chinese refiners support prices. US inflation data (Tuesday) will influence USD and oil. Technical Outlook: Resistance at $61.00; support at $59.80. RSI neutral, with trade deal details critical. Economic Data and Fed Focus Today’s Data: US-China joint trade statement (Geneva) is the focal point, with details on tariff reductions (US 145%, China 125%) driving risk sentiment. Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence and NAB Business Conditions (Tuesday) will impact AUD. US Inflation and Powell: US CPI (Tuesday), Retail Sales, and PPI (Thursday) will shape Fed rate-cut expectations (July favored). Powell’s Thursday appearance will clarify tariff impacts and policy stance. China Data: Weak CPI (-0.1% YoY) and PPI (-2.7% YoY) signal deflationary pressures, while a $96.18 billion trade surplus (April) reflects slower export growth (8.1% YoY), pressuring AUD and NZD. US-China Trade Deal and Geopolitical Risks Trade Status: US-China talks achieved “substantial progress” (Bessent, He Lifeng), with a joint statement due today. No tariff cuts (US 145%, China 125%) were confirmed, tempering optimism. US-UK deal (10% tariffs) and potential 50% China tariff cuts next week lift sentiment. Commerce Secretary Lutnick signals more deals soon. Geopolitical Tensions: Russia-Ukraine talks (May 15), Hamas hostage release plans, and India-Pakistan border clashes maintain safe-haven demand for gold and JPY, despite trade optimism. Outlook On May 12, 2025, markets are driven by US-China trade deal optimism, lifting AUD/USD (0.6420) and WTI ($60.90), while gold ($3,253) and EUR/USD (1.1210) face pressure from a firm USD (DXY at 100.60). USD/JPY holds near 146.00 as JPY weakens. The US-China joint statement, US inflation data, and Powell’s speech will shape volatility, with geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties keeping investors cautious. Stay tuned for further updates.

Moneta Markets Daily Market Update: May 6, 2025

Daily Market Update: May 6, 2025 Global financial markets on May 6, 2025, are stabilizing as investors await the Federal Reserve’s two-day FOMC meeting, with major currency pairs trading in tight ranges. Gold and silver rally on safe-haven demand driven by Trump’s new tariff threats and Middle East tensions, while the US Dollar holds steady despite recent weakness. AUD/USD consolidates after election-driven gains, and USD/JPY remains under pressure from a stronger Yen. Key data releases, including US and Canadian trade balances and Eurozone PMI, are in focus, with the FOMC outcome and Powell’s comments expected to drive volatility. Gold Surges Toward $3,400 Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,380, nearing a two-week high. Market Dynamics: Trump’s 100% tariff on foreign films and planned pharmaceutical tariffs boost safe-haven demand. Middle East escalations (Israel-Houthi strikes) and Russia-Ukraine drone attacks add support. A steady USD (DXY above 99.50) limits gains, but strong US ISM Services PMI (51.6) and NFP (177K jobs) ease recession fears. Markets await FOMC signals on rate-cut timing, with Powell’s comments critical. Technical Outlook: Resistance at $3,385 (61.8% Fibonacci); support at $3,350. Positive oscillators favor bulls, but a break above $3,400 could target $3,425. Silver Breaks Above $33.00 Current Level: Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $33.10, up for the second day. Key Drivers: Trump’s tariff threats (100% on films, pharmaceuticals pending) spur safe-haven flows, though USD strength caps gains. Industrial demand concerns linger amid global slowdown fears. China’s Caixin Services PMI at 50.7 signals slower growth, pressuring silver’s industrial outlook. FOMC’s unchanged rate stance may influence USD and silver prices. Technical Outlook: Resistance at $33.50; support at $32.80. RSI above 50 suggests bullish momentum, with FOMC as a key catalyst. AUD/USD Consolidates Above 0.6450 Current Level: AUD/USD trades near 0.6450, stabilizing after hitting 0.6500. Market Dynamics: Albanese’s election win and Judo Bank Services PMI at 51.0 support AUD, but weak Retail Sales (0.3% MoM) and China’s PMI slowdown (50.7) limit upside. USD holds firm post-NFP and ISM data, with trade deal hopes (Bessent’s comments on deals) adding optimism. RBA rate-cut bets for May persist, capping AUD gains. Technical Outlook: Resistance at 0.6515; support at 0.6408 (nine-day EMA). RSI above 50 maintains bullish bias, with FOMC and US trade balance data key. USD/JPY Under Pressure Below 143.50 Current Level: USD/JPY trades near 143.30, down 0.9% Monday. Influencing Factors: Safe-haven JPY gains from Middle East and Russia-Ukraine tensions, despite BoJ’s dovish stance (0.5% rate). USD struggles post-NFP, with FOMC expected to hold rates unchanged. Trump’s tariffs (100% on films) and trade talk optimism (China reviewing US proposal) create mixed sentiment. Japan’s inflation supports BoJ hike bets for 2025. Technical View: Support at 143.30; resistance at 144.25. Negative oscillators signal bearish bias, with a break below 142.65 targeting 141.00. EUR/USD Rangebound Near 1.1300 Current Level: EUR/USD trades near 1.1320, below 1.1350. Market Dynamics: USD stability post-ISM Services PMI and NFP limits EUR losses, but Trump’s tariffs and trade uncertainty cap USD gains. Eurozone PMI data (expected stable) and ECB’s June rate-cut bets (25 bps) weigh on EUR. UK’s insulation from US tariffs supports GBP, pressuring EUR/GBP. FOMC and Powell’s comments are pivotal. Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.1380; support at 1.1265. Mixed oscillators suggest caution, with 200-period SMA (1.1125) as a key level. GBP/USD Edges Above 1.3320 Current Level: GBP/USD trades near 1.3325, extending gains. Key Drivers: USD softness and UK’s relative tariff insulation (US $12 billion surplus) lift GBP. BoE’s expected 25 bps rate cut to 4.25% on Thursday caps upside. Strong UK services PMI (53.1) supports sentiment, but Trump’s trade policies add uncertainty. FOMC outcome will influence USD dynamics. Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.3445; support at 1.3234. RSI near 55.60 signals bullish momentum, with BoE decision critical. Economic Data and FOMC Focus Today’s Data: Eurozone Producer Price Index (March), US and Canadian trade balances. US trade deficit expected to widen slightly, while Canada’s surplus may narrow due to tariff concerns. Eurozone PMI expected to show steady services growth. FOMC Meeting: Rates likely unchanged, with Powell’s comments on tariffs and rate-cut timing (July favored) crucial. Strong NFP (177K) and ISM Services PMI (51.6) reduce June cut odds, but tariff-driven inflation risks loom. US-Canada Trade: Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canada (effective March) pressure CAD, with trade balance data critical amid exemption talks. US-China Trade and Geopolitical Risks Trade Status: Trump’s 100% film tariff and pharmaceutical tariff plans escalate tensions, but Bessent and Lutnick signal progress in trade deals, possibly with top-10 economies. China reviews US talk proposals but demands tariff corrections. Geopolitical Tensions: Middle East airstrikes (Israel-Yemen) and Russia-Ukraine drone attacks fuel safe-haven demand, boosting gold, silver, and JPY. Putin’s ceasefire rejection adds uncertainty. Outlook On May 6, 2025, markets are cautious as major pairs stabilize ahead of the FOMC meeting, with gold and silver rallying on tariff-driven safe-haven demand. AUD/USD holds gains, while USD/JPY weakens under JPY strength. EUR/USD and GBP/USD face resistance, with BoE and ECB decisions looming. Today’s PMI and trade balance data, alongside Powell’s FOMC comments, will shape market direction, with trade and geopolitical risks keeping investors on edge. Stay tuned for further updates.

Markets experience subdued activity due to the Good Friday holiday: April 18, 2025

Global financial markets on April 18, 2025, are experiencing subdued activity due to the Good Friday holiday, with thin trading volumes amplifying reactions to US-China trade developments and Federal Reserve rhetoric. Optimism from US President Donald Trump’s comments on a potential US-China trade deal within weeks is tempered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s warnings of stagflation risks, keeping the US Dollar under pressure. Stronger oil prices and safe-haven flows influence currency pairs, while gold sees profit-taking after a record high. Key US data and Fed speak today could sway sentiment further. AUD/USD Subdued Despite Trade Deal Hopes Current Level: AUD/USD hovers near 0.6350, pausing its seven-day rally amid holiday-thinned trading. Key Drivers: Trump’s optimistic tone on a US-China trade deal (potentially within 3-4 weeks) and exemptions on tech products from China boost Australia’s commodity export outlook. However, Powell’s stagflation concerns and a hawkish Fed stance (first rate cut now expected in July) limit USD weakness, capping AUD gains. Australia’s recent jobs data (4.1% unemployment, 17.2K part-time jobs added) supports modest optimism. Technical Outlook: Support at 0.6300; resistance at 0.6408. Thin volumes may exaggerate moves today. Gold Retreats on Profit-Taking Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower to around $3,319, down from its all-time high of $3,358. Market Dynamics: Profit-taking ahead of the Easter weekend pressures prices, but safe-haven demand persists due to US-China trade uncertainties and global recession fears. Powell’s hawkish comments reduce June rate-cut odds, supporting a modest USD bounce that weighs on gold. Fed’s Mary Daly’s speech today could provide further clues. Technical View: Support at $3,300, with $3,229 as the next level; resistance at $3,357. RSI remains overbought but not extreme, suggesting potential for further upside. USD/CHF Pressured by Safe-Haven CHF Current Level: USD/CHF trades around 0.8180, below 0.8200, near its strongest level since 2011 for CHF. Influencing Factors: Switzerland’s trade surplus widened to CHF 6.35 billion in March, driven by a 12.6% export surge, bolstering the safe-haven Swiss Franc. USD weakness persists amid trade war fallout and stagflation fears, with markets pricing in 86 bps of Fed rate cuts by end-2025. Trump’s trade deal optimism slightly curbs CHF demand. Key Levels: Support at 0.8100; resistance at 0.8200. Holiday-driven low liquidity may amplify volatility. EUR/USD Holds Bullish Bias Current Level: EUR/USD strengthens to near 1.1370, supported by trade deal hopes. Technical Outlook: The pair remains above the 100-day EMA, with the 14-day RSI signaling bullish momentum. Resistance at 1.1400-1.1415; support at 1.1280, with 1.1100 as a key level. A break above 1.1415 could target 1.1495. Fundamental Drivers: Trump’s positive remarks on US-EU trade talks, including with Italy’s PM Giorgia Meloni, lift the Euro. The ECB’s recent 25 bps rate cut to 2.40% and Powell’s stagflation warnings keep USD subdued, though holiday trading limits moves. WTI Oil Rallies on Supply Concerns Current Level: WTI crude oil climbs to a two-week high near $63.50. Key Influences: Fresh US sanctions on Iranian oil exports raise supply concerns, boosting prices. Trump’s optimism on US-EU trade talks supports global demand expectations. However, a 515,000-barrel rise in US crude stockpiles (per EIA) tempers gains. OPEC+’s flexibility to cut production if needed adds stability. Outlook: Resistance at $64.00; support at $62.00. Geopolitical developments remain critical. Broader Market Context Markets on April 18, 2025, are navigating a complex mix of trade deal optimism and stagflation fears, with holiday-thinned trading amplifying potential volatility. AUD/USD and EUR/USD hold steady, supported by USD weakness and positive trade talk signals, while USD/CHF faces pressure from a strong CHF. Gold sees profit-taking but remains underpinned by safe-haven demand, and WTI oil rallies on supply concerns. Today’s US data (Jobless Claims, Building Permits) and Fed’s Mary Daly’s speech could drive short-term moves, with Trump’s tariff policies and trade negotiations remaining pivotal. Stay tuned for further updates.

Risk-on sentiment surges: April 16, 2025

Global financial markets are navigating a complex landscape on April 15, 2025, as US President Donald Trump’s tariff exemptions on tech and auto sectors spark a cautious risk-on sentiment, while escalating US-China trade tensions—marked by China’s 125% retaliatory tariffs against the US’s 145% duties—fuel recession fears. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming US PPI data, UK jobs figures, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech tomorrow for directional cues, with safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese Yen holding firm amid uncertainty. The Pound and Australian Dollar are capitalizing on a weaker US Dollar, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, while oil prices grapple with mixed demand signals. USD/CHF Slides Toward Multi-Year Lows Current Level: USD/CHF drops to the mid-0.8100s, nearing a ten-year low hit last Friday. Driving Factors: A weaker US Dollar, languishing near its lowest since April 2022, faces headwinds from US recession concerns and bets for 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts in 2025. Safe-haven demand bolsters the Swiss Franc (CHF) amid trade war jitters. Technical Outlook: Support at 0.8100 is critical; a break below could target 0.8050. Resistance lies at 0.8200. AUD/USD Holds Firm on China’s Strength Current Level: AUD/USD remains steady near 0.6350, extending gains for a sixth day. Key Drivers: China’s Q1 GDP growth of 5.4% (beating 5.1% forecasts), Retail Sales up 5.9%, and Industrial Production at 7.7% signal robust demand, supporting Australia’s commodity exports. A subdued USD ahead of US Retail Sales data adds tailwinds, despite a softer Westpac Leading Index (0.6% vs. 0.9%). What to Watch: Resistance at 0.6408; support at 0.6300. US data could sway sentiment. UK CPI Data in Focus for GBP/USD Current Level: GBP/USD trades near 1.3200, consolidating after hitting a six-month high yesterday. Influencing Factors: Markets await UK March CPI data, expected to show headline inflation cooling to 2.7% YoY (from 2.8%) and core CPI steady at 3.5%. Softer readings could fuel BoE rate-cut bets (25 bps in May), pressuring the Pound, while an upside surprise might push GBP/USD toward 1.3300. Context: Global trade war concerns and a dovish Fed backdrop keep USD weak, supporting GBP. Japanese Yen Gains on Safe-Haven Demand Current Level: USD/JPY slides to the mid-142.00s as the Yen strengthens. Market Dynamics: Trade tariff uncertainties, including Trump’s shifting stance on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, drive safe-haven flows. Japan’s Core Machinery Orders rose 4.3% in February, signaling economic resilience and supporting BoJ rate-hike bets. A dovish Fed caps USD upside. Key Levels: Support at 142.00; resistance at 143.50. Powell’s speech could provide direction. USD/CAD Breaks Lower, Bearish Trend Intact Current Level: USD/CAD dips to 1.3940, below the key 1.3950 level. Technical View: The pair remains in a descending channel, with the 14-day RSI below 50, reinforcing bearish momentum. Support at 1.3828 (six-month low) is in sight; resistance at 1.4023 (nine-day EMA). Influences: USD weakness and global risk-off sentiment weigh on the pair, despite Canada’s exposure to trade tensions. Broader Market Context On April 16, 2025, markets reflect a tug-of-war between trade-driven uncertainty and pockets of economic resilience. The USD’s slide fuels gains for the CHF, JPY, and AUD, while GBP/USD awaits UK CPI for clarity on BoE policy. US Retail Sales data today and Powell’s speech tomorrow are critical for gauging Fed intentions and USD trajectory. With Trump’s tariff plans looming, safe-haven assets remain in favor, but China’s strong data offers a counterbalance for commodity currencies. Volatility is likely as these catalysts unfold. Stay tuned for further updates.

Continued Trade Tensions Steer Markets: April 15, 2025

Continued Trade Tensions Steer Markets: April 15, 2025 Global financial markets are navigating a complex landscape on April 15, 2025, as US President Donald Trump’s tariff exemptions on tech and auto sectors spark a cautious risk-on sentiment, while escalating US-China trade tensions—marked by China’s 125% retaliatory tariffs against the US’s 145% duties—fuel recession fears. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming US PPI data, UK jobs figures, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech tomorrow for directional cues, with safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese Yen holding firm amid uncertainty. The Pound and Australian Dollar are capitalizing on a weaker US Dollar, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, while oil prices grapple with mixed demand signals. GBP/USD Hits Six-Month High Current Level: GBP/USD surges past 1.3200, reaching its highest point since October 2024, marking six consecutive days of gains. Driving Factors: A weakening US Dollar, pressured by US-China trade war fallout and stagflation concerns, bolsters the Pound. Divergent expectations—reduced odds of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut versus anticipated Fed easing (90 basis points by year-end)—support the pair. What to Watch: UK jobs data today could reinforce GBP strength if strong, with resistance at 1.3250 in focus. AUD/USD Rides Tariff Relief Wave Current Level: AUD/USD extends its rally for a fifth day, trading near 0.6350, buoyed by improved global risk appetite. Key Drivers: Trump’s exemptions on tech products like smartphones and semiconductors, many sourced from China, ease pressure on Australia’s top trading partner. RBA minutes highlight uncertainty on rate moves, keeping markets cautious. Technical Outlook: Support at 0.6300 holds, with upside potential toward 0.6408 if risk sentiment persists. EUR/USD Stabilizes Amid Uncertainty Current Level: EUR/USD hovers near 1.1350, caught between a stabilizing US Dollar and trade war jitters. Influencing Factors: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s remarks on persistent inflation challenges temper rate-cut hopes. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, capping euro gains. US-China tariff escalation adds economic concerns. Key Levels: Support at 1.1300; resistance at 1.1400. US PPI data today could drive volatility. Japanese Yen Trims Losses Current Level: USD/JPY trades above 143.00, with the Yen recovering some ground after early losses. Market Dynamics: Hopes for a US-Japan trade deal and rising Japanese inflation support the Yen, offsetting reduced safe-haven demand from an upbeat market mood. A dovish Fed outlook contrasts with potential BoJ tightening, capping USD/JPY gains. Levels to Watch: Support at 142.50; resistance at 144.00. Trade-related headlines remain critical. Gold Shines as Safe-Haven Demand Persists Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) holds above $3,200, close to its all-time high, after a modest dip yesterday. Supporting Factors: Intensifying US-China trade tensions drive safe-haven flows. Fed rate-cut bets weaken the USD, boosting gold. Trump’s tariff relief on tech and auto sectors slightly curbs upside momentum. Technical View: Support at $3,167 is pivotal, with bulls targeting a retest of $3,246. WTI Oil Steadies on Mixed Signals Current Level: WTI crude oil stabilizes around $61.10, supported by tariff relief hopes. Key Influences: Trump’s hints at auto sector exemptions and prior tech tariff relief lift sentiment. China’s 5% year-over-year surge in March oil imports supports prices. However, OPEC+’s lowered demand forecasts for 2025 (1.3 million bpd) and 2026 (1.28 million bpd) limit gains. Outlook: Resistance at $62.00; support at $60.00. Geopolitical developments could spur volatility. Broader Market Context Markets are balancing optimism from US tariff exemptions against fears of a deepening US-China trade war. GBP/USD and AUD/USD thrive on USD weakness, while gold and the Yen draw safe-haven interest. EUR/USD remains range-bound, awaiting ECB cues, and WTI oil navigates conflicting signals. Today’s US PPI and UK jobs data, alongside Powell’s speech tomorrow, could shape near-term trends. Investors stay vigilant as trade policy uncertainty dominates. Stay tuned for further updates as these dynamics evolve.

Trade War Tensions Escalate - Moneta Markets Daily Market Update: April 14, 2025

Trade War Tensions Escalate Market Update: April 14, 2025 Global markets are gripped by volatility as the US-China trade war intensifies, with China raising tariffs on US imports to 125% in retaliation for steep US levies. Softer US inflation data and recession fears are hammering the US Dollar, boosting safe-haven gold and major currencies like the euro and pound. Cryptocurrencies show mixed signals, with Bitcoin eyeing a breakout, while Mantra’s dramatic crash rattles the market. Investors are focused on US PPI data, consumer sentiment, and trade developments for fresh direction. US-China Trade War Heats Up: China’s Finance Ministry announced an increase in tariffs on US imports from 84% to 125% starting April 12, retaliating against US tariffs on Chinese goods (145% cumulative). This escalation, following Trump’s 90-day tariff pause for most nations except China, has heightened recession fears. Market Impact: Asian equities dipped (Hang Seng -1.4%), and US futures signal a cautious open. Risk-off sentiment dominates, with focus on potential further US tariff hikes or de-escalation signals. US Dollar Under Pressure: The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovers near a 35-month low at 100.40, down 0.2%, as recession concerns and softer CPI data (2.4% YoY in March, below 2.6% expected) fuel Fed rate cut bets (100 bps by year-end). China’s tariff hike intensified USD selling. Market Impact: 10-year US Treasury yields fell to 3.85%, reflecting safe-haven bond demand. Today’s US PPI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment data are critical, though trade war news may overshadow. EUR/USD: Euro Surges Current Levels: EUR/USD trades at 1.1407, up 0.5%, hitting a multi-month high. Key Drivers: USD weakness and risk-off flows lift the euro, despite ECB rate cut expectations (25 bps likely on April 17). The 4-hour RSI above 80 signals overbought conditions, hinting at a potential pullback. Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.1500, 1.1535, and 1.1600; support at 1.1300 and 1.1200. Trade war developments could drive volatility. GBP/USD: Pound Holds Firm Current Levels: GBP/USD rises to 1.3167, up 0.4%, holding above 1.3100. Key Drivers: Sustained USD selling supports GBP, with the pair closing above the 200-day SMA (1.2820). The 4-hour RSI near 60 reflects bullish momentum, though trade war risks linger. Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.3200, 1.3250; support at 1.3100, 1.2820, and 1.2760. Upside bias persists unless USD rebounds. Gold: Near Record Highs Current Levels: XAU/USD trades at $3,229.27, down 0.2% but close to its $3,245 peak. Key Drivers: Safe-haven demand surges amid US-China trade tensions and USD weakness. The daily RSI at 69 suggests a shallow pullback, with tariff-driven inflation fears supporting bulls. Technical Outlook: Support at $3,200, $3,176, and $3,100; resistance at $3,245 and $3,300. US PPI data could sway momentum. Cryptocurrencies: Mixed Signals Bitcoin (BTC): Trades at $84,000, testing resistance at $85,000 (200-day EMA). A breakout could target $90,000-$95,000, but RSI near 50 shows indecision. Ethereum (ETH): Hovers at $1,600, supported above daily lows, signaling recovery potential. Ripple (XRP): Stable at $2.14, backed by its 200-day EMA. Mantra (OM): Crashed 90% to $0.83, losing $5.2 billion in market cap, raising insider trading concerns akin to Terra LUNA. Trump (TRUMP): Faces $320 million token unlock, adding supply pressure. Market Impact: Crypto markets are cautious, with BTC’s breakout potential offset by altcoin volatility. Broader Market Context Risk-Off Persists: The VIX remains elevated at 29, reflecting trade war uncertainty. European markets are mixed (FTSE 100 +0.2%, DAX -0.5%), and commodity-linked currencies struggle. Safe Havens Lead: Gold and major currencies like EUR and GBP outperform, while the USD and crypto altcoins lag. Data Watch: US PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and Fed speeches (Waller, Harker) are key, but trade war headlines could dominate. Looking Ahead: Key Events: US PPI data (expected +2.3% YoY) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (forecast 71.0) could shape Fed rate cut bets. Trump’s response to China’s tariffs—further escalation or a step back—will drive sentiment. Market Implications: A softer PPI could deepen USD losses, boosting gold and FX pairs, while hotter data might spark a USD rebound. Crypto markets hinge on BTC’s $85,000 test and altcoin stability. Key Takeaway: The US-China trade war, now with 125% Chinese tariffs on US goods, is reshaping markets, hammering the USD and lifting safe-havens like gold and major currencies. Bitcoin teeters on a breakout, but crypto volatility persists with Mantra’s collapse. As US data looms, trade tensions hold the reins, keeping volatility front and center.

Market's react to escalating trade tensions. Market Update: April 11, 2025

Market's react to escalating trade tensions. Market Update: April 11, 2025 Financial markets are reacting to escalating US-China trade tensions, with gold and silver performing well as safe-haven assets. The US Dollar appears to be under pressure, reflected in the Dollar Index at around 100.40, following softer-than-expected US inflation data that has increased speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts. This weakening USD is supporting currency pairs like NZD/USD, which is holding steady above 0.5750, while USD/CAD shows a bearish outlook below 1.4000. The Australian Dollar is facing headwinds from trade war impacts, despite potential relief from restarting EU trade talks. Gold continues to soar Gold (XAU/USD) is trading close to fresh all-time highs near $3,220 per ounce in early European trading on Friday, likely driven by deepening trade tensions between the US and China. The US has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods now reaching 145%, with China retaliating by raising tariffs on 84% of American imports and adding six US firms, including defense and aerospace companies like Shield AI and Sierra Nevada, to its trade blacklist, while introducing export controls on others such as American Photonics and BRINC Drones. This escalation is heightening global economic uncertainty, supporting gold’s status as a safe-haven asset. US Dollar Index (DXY) Movements The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, continues its decline for the second consecutive session, hovering around 100.40 during Friday’s Asian trading hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a sustained bearish trend, with the index testing the lower boundary of a prevailing descending channel. Despite the downward pressure, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 30, signaling the potential for an imminent upward correction. Furthermore, the DXY is trading well below its nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating weak short-term momentum. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the psychological level of 100.00, followed by 99.76—the lowest level since April 2022—with additional support near the 99.00 mark. To the upside, a move toward the nine-day EMA at 102.34 could be on the cards. A decisive break above this level may enhance short-term bullish momentum and pave the way for a test of the key resistance zone near the upper boundary of the descending channel at the monthly high of 104.37, followed by 104.59. USD weakness is influencing several currency pairs USD/CAD The pair is trading around 1.3965, below the key 1.4000 level, with a bearish outlook intact below the 100-day EMA. The 14-day RSI at 32.60 supports sellers in the near term, indicating downward momentum. Initial support is at 1.3842 (November 7, 2024 low), with further levels at 1.3750 (October 16, 2024 low) and 1.3480 (October 1, 2024 low). On the bright side, the first upside barrier for USD/CAD is located at the 1.4000 psychological level. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to 1.4113 (April 10 high) and 1.4225 (100-day EMA) if buying pressure returns. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is influenced by oil prices, which are struggling, adding to the pair’s bearish sentiment. AUD/USD The Australian Dollar is losing ground, likely pressured by the US increasing tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, raising concerns for Australia given its strong trade ties with China. However, there is some positive news, with reports that Australia is set to restart trade negotiations with the European Union, potentially offering support. Specific levels are not provided, but the AUD remains vulnerable amid elevated market volatility, likely trading lower. NZD/USD The pair is holding positive ground around 0.5770, after reaching a daily high of 0.5800 during Asian trading hours. This resilience is bolstered by broad USD weakness amid trade war worries, with the Trump administration hitting China with new tariffs of 145%. Despite a 90-day pause on tariffs for other countries except China, the NZD benefits from the USD’s decline. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its April meeting, with analysts anticipating a deeper 50 bps cut and markets factoring in up to 100 bps in further easing by 2025, which might cap the NZD’s upside in the near term. Broader Market Context The intensification of the US-China trade war is fostering a risk-off environment, benefiting safe-haven assets like gold and silver. China has raised tariffs on 84% of American imports and added six US firms, including defense and aerospace companies like Shield AI and Sierra Nevada, to its trade blacklist, while introducing export controls on others such as American Photonics and BRINC Drones. This escalation is heightening global economic uncertainty, with potential implications for growth and financial stability. US economic data continues to play a pivotal role, with the softer CPI suggesting cooling inflation, potentially paving the way for Fed rate cuts. However, tariff-induced inflation risks remain, adding complexity to the outlook. Central bank actions are also influencing markets, with the Fed under scrutiny for possible rate cuts and the RBNZ already easing, while other central banks’ responses will depend on their domestic conditions. Looking Ahead: Key Data and Events Investors are bracing for the release of the US March Producer Price Index (PPI) and the advanced Michigan Consumer Sentiment later today. The PPI data is expected to provide further insights into producer inflation, potentially influencing Fed policy expectations, while consumer sentiment will gauge confidence amid economic uncertainties. Additionally, any updates on US-China trade negotiations or retaliatory measures could significantly impact market dynamics, keeping volatility elevated.

Trade War Reshuffles. Markets shift fast! Moneta Markets Daily Market Update: April 10, 2025

Global markets are adjusting to a volatile landscape as U.S.-China trade tensions escalate, despite a 90-day tariff delay on most nations announced by President Donald Trump. Cooling U.S. inflation data looms large, with the March CPI report set to influence Fed rate expectations and the USD’s trajectory. Safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese Yen rally, while the Canadian Dollar weakens amid oil’s struggles and Fed rate cut bets reshape currency dynamics. U.S. CPI Inflation Data in Focus Forecast: The U.S. CPI is expected to rise 2.6% YoY in March (down from 2.8%), with core CPI easing to 3% (from 3.1%), per the Bureau of Labor Statistics report due at 12:30 GMT today. Monthly gains are projected at 0.1% for headline CPI and 0.3% for core. Key Drivers: TD Securities anticipates a “firm” 0.26% m/m core inflation pace, with goods cooling and services picking up. A sharp drop in energy prices (-0.07% m/m headline) and flat food inflation signal a slowdown, keeping Fed rate cuts on the table. Market Impact: A softer-than-expected report could boost Fed easing bets (currently 100 bps by year-end), weakening the USD further. EUR/JPY: Yen Pressures Euro Current Levels: EUR/JPY softens to 161.05 in early European trading, down 0.3%. Key Drivers: Stronger-than-expected Japanese PPI (+2.9% YoY) reinforces BoJ rate hike expectations for 2025, lifting the JPY. Safe-haven demand persists amid U.S.-China tariff escalation, though a neutral RSI (near 50) suggests consolidation. The euro weakens as ECB rate cuts loom (90% chance of 25 bps on April 17). Technical Outlook: Vulnerable below the 100-day EMA (161.00); support at 160.35, resistance at 162.20. A break below 160.00 could target 159.12. Japanese Yen vs. USD: Safe-Haven Strength Current Levels: USD/JPY slides to mid-146.00s, down 0.4%, after a bounce from sub-144.00. Key Drivers: Robust Japanese PPI and hopes of a U.S.-Japan trade deal bolster the JPY, amplified by its safe-haven status amid tariff fears. Divergent BoJ (hawkish) and Fed (dovish) outlooks weigh on USD/JPY, though recovering risk sentiment caps JPY gains. Technical Outlook: Support at 145.50; resistance at 147.00. CPI data could dictate the next move. USD/CAD: Loonie Under Pressure Current Levels: USD/CAD dips to 1.4075-1.4070, down 0.2%, after failing to hold above 1.4100. Key Drivers: Fed rate cut bets and a risk-on recovery (sparked by Trump’s tariff delay) weaken the USD. However, oil’s inability to rebound from a four-year low ($61) undermines the Canadian Dollar (CAD), limiting USD/CAD losses. Bearish oscillators signal further downside. Technical Outlook: A break below 1.4055 could test the 200-day SMA (1.4000); resistance at 1.4175-1.4180. Gold: Eyes Record Highs Current Levels: XAU/USD rallies to $3,100, up 1.3%, closing in on its all-time peak. Key Drivers: Escalating U.S.-China trade tensions (despite tariff delays elsewhere) drive safe-haven flows. Fed rate cut expectations depress the USD, while inflation fears enhance gold’s appeal as a hedge. Elevated U.S. yields (10-year at 3.90%) and risk-on sentiment pose headwinds. Technical Outlook: Resistance at $3,120 (record high); support at $3,070. CPI data will be pivotal. Broader Market Context Mixed Signals: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) eased to 28 as Trump’s tariff delay lifts risk assets—S&P 500 futures rose 0.8%. Yet, U.S.-China tensions keep safe-havens in demand. Currency Trends: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slips 0.2% to 103.90, reflecting Fed easing bets. The JPY and gold outperform, while CAD lags. Commodities: WTI crude holds near $61.50, up 0.8%, but oversupply and demand fears linger. Looking Ahead: Key Events: Today’s U.S. CPI data could shift Fed expectations—cooler inflation may lock in a May cut, pressuring the USD further. Japan’s BoJ stance and U.S.-Japan trade talks remain wildcards. Market Implications: A softer CPI could fuel risk-on momentum, lifting equities and weakening safe-havens, while a hotter-than-expected print might bolster the USD and cap gold’s rally. Volatility is primed to swing. Key Takeaway: Trump’s tariff chess game reshuffles global markets—delaying some moves but doubling down on China. Cooling U.S. inflation keeps the Fed in play, driving gold past $3,100 and the yen higher, while oil and CAD struggle. Today’s CPI report holds the next decisive piece in this high-stakes economic match.

Daily Global Market Update – 14th March, 2025

GBP/USD Drifts Lower Near 1.2925 The Pound Sterling (GBP) is softening against the US Dollar (USD), hovering around 1.2925 in the early European session on Friday. This drift lower follows a modest improvement in global risk sentiment, which has slightly eroded GBP’s appeal as a safe-haven currency. Posts on X highlight this pullback, with traders watching closely to see if this signals a broader correction after recent resilience. AUD/USD Defends Bids Below 0.6300 The Australian Dollar (AUD) is staging a defense below the 0.6300 level during Friday’s Asian session, bolstered by a brighter risk appetite and a USD lift from US-Canada trade optimism. After shedding losses from three consecutive days, AUD/USD’s recovery remains tempered by ongoing US tariff uncertainties, keeping the risk-sensitive Aussie in a cautious stance. USD/JPY Builds on Rebound Ahead of CPI Fallout The US Dollar against the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) is extending its recovery, climbing from a five-month low of 146.52 to a weekly high of 148.59. Friday’s positive start builds on the aftermath of Wednesday’s US CPI data (headline 0.25%, core 0.27% for February), which hinted at cooling inflation. This rebound suggests shifting momentum, though tariff-related headwinds could still cap gains. US Dollar Index Tests Support at 103.50 The US Dollar Index (DXY) is finding stability around 103.60 in Asian hours, testing key support near 103.50 after Thursday’s uptick. Following a slide to multi-month lows earlier this week, the Greenback is steadying as markets digest a 95% probability of no Fed rate change on March 19, per the CME FedWatch tool. Yet, tariff-driven slowdown fears keep the DXY on shaky ground. Broader Market Context On March 14, 2025, markets are balancing a fragile US Dollar recovery against lingering economic uncertainties. The GBP/USD’s retreat contrasts with AUD/USD’s tentative rebound, while USD/JPY capitalizes on post-CPI momentum. The DXY’s test of support underscores a market grappling with mixed signals—cooling US inflation offers some relief, but Trump’s tariff policies continue to cloud the outlook. With risk sentiment ticking up, traders are poised for further volatility as the week closes.

Daily Global Market Update – 28th Feb 2025

Markets are reeling as risk aversion dominates on Friday, February 28, 2025. With key support levels crumbling and critical U.S. data looming, here’s the latest rundown of today’s financial headlines. Equities and Tech Take a Hit The Nasdaq is in freefall, dropping to 20,576 with no buyers stepping in where support was desperately needed—an ugly signal for tech-heavy indices. Nvidia’s upbeat forecast failed to inspire confidence, instead triggering an 8% overnight selloff as investors cashed out, wary of overstretched valuations and a broader risk-off wave. Adding to the tech sector’s woes, Apple faces a lawsuit challenging its ‘carbon neutral’ claims for watches, potentially denting its ESG credentials and investor sentiment. Currency Markets on Edge The AUD/USD remains under pressure, eyeing a slide toward 0.6200 as traders await U.S. PCE inflation data, a key gauge of Federal Reserve policy direction. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY is buckling under intense selling, hovering near 149.50. Despite weak Tokyo CPI and Japan’s retail trade figures, the yen is holding firm as a safe-haven amid risk aversion and a sell-off in U.S. Treasury yields. Gold Breaches Support Gold prices have pierced through a critical $2,890 support level, with the precious metal now vulnerable ahead of the U.S. PCE inflation report. A hotter-than-expected reading could further pressure gold as yields rise, while a softer report might offer some relief to bulls. Outlook It’s a rough day for risk assets, with the Nasdaq’s collapse, Nvidia’s stumble, and gold’s breakdown painting a grim picture. Currency traders are laser-focused on the upcoming U.S. PCE data, which could either deepen the selloff or provide a lifeline. Apple’s legal headache adds another layer of uncertainty to an already shaky tech landscape. With USD/JPY and AUD/USD signaling persistent caution, markets are bracing for a bumpy ride into the weekend.

Daily Global Market Update – 25th Feb 2025

Tech and Trade Tensions Tesla is making waves with its preparations to roll out long-awaited Full Self-Driving (FSD) features in China, a move that could bolster its position in one of the world’s largest electric vehicle markets. Investors appear optimistic about Tesla’s expansion of autonomous driving technology, potentially offsetting concerns over rising trade tensions. Meanwhile, Apple announced plans to create 20,000 new jobs in the U.S., a strategic response to looming threats of tariffs under the Trump administration. This move signals confidence in domestic growth but also underscores the pressure U.S. tech giants face amid shifting trade policies. Energy and Commodities In the energy sector, OPEC+ is reportedly planning to increase oil output, a decision influenced by President Trump’s push for lower oil prices, according to Bank of America. This development could ease inflationary pressures globally but may challenge oil-dependent economies if prices drop too sharply. Crude oil futures are expected to see volatility as markets digest the potential supply hike. Crypto and Financials Citadel Securities, a major player in traditional finance, is eyeing a significant leap into cryptocurrency trading, buoyed by Trump’s pro-crypto stance. This shift reflects growing mainstream acceptance of digital assets and could further fuel the crypto rally seen in recent months, though regulatory clarity remains a wildcard. Outlook Markets are navigating a complex landscape of innovation, policy shifts, and geopolitical uncertainty. Tesla’s FSD deployment and Apple’s job creation signal resilience in tech, while trade anxieties and oil output changes highlight risks to global stability. Investors will likely remain cautious, with attention fixed on how Trump’s policies unfold and their broader economic impact. As of now, the interplay between growth opportunities and trade-related headwinds is keeping volatility front and center.
 
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