Market players spent much of last week positioning into Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, with risk trading poorly as traders cut back on core equity longs, lower-quality equity exposures, and reduced USD shorts and crypto positioning. Throughout much of last week, expectations had built that Chair Powell would align with the views expressed by Fed members Schmid, Bostic, and Hammock, who all voiced increased concern about inflation pulling away from the Fed’s 2% target, and along with the improved US PMI data, this was to be enough for traders to act.

Driven by weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls, renewed trade tensions, and shifts within the Fed’s leadership, gold’s safe-haven appeal has notably strengthened. However, in the short term, technical resistance near $3,370 remains a key hurdle. With the ISM Services PMI and a flurry of Fed speeches scheduled this week, volatility could increase further.

It feels premature to give on the well-subscribed ‘buy the dip’ mantra just yet, but there are clear reasons to trim back on risk exposures or to layer on portfolio hedges - either through short equity index positions (to offset core portfolio longs), increasing gold longs or buying volatility. by Chris Weston - Head of Research

Friday’s ‘goldilocks’ US labour market report elicited a solid risk-on reaction, clearing the way for fresh equity highs. This week, the May US CPI figures, and latest round of US-China trade talks, are in focus.

While US and European equity futures have opened on a firmer footing - thanks to yet another U-turn on tariffs from the Trump camp, broad participation will take time to build with Memorial Day in the US and the May Bank holiday in the UK, with the interest set to build as we head towards Nvidia’s earnings (Wednesday), US consumer confidence and inflation reads in the US (core PCE) and Australia.

The handover of risk into the new trading week is positive, and US equity futures will start the week reacting to the US-China weekend meeting on a solid footing, and as such, I remain skewed for higher levels through the week ahead in DM equity indices. Momentum is the tactical strategy to play, and at least for now I take the stance of buying into strength in the US500, NKY225, NAS100, AUS200, GER40, or HK50, for a continuation of the bull trend in place from the April lows.

Stocks notched a fourth straight advance on Friday as trade hopes grew, as Treasuries and the dollar also extended recent gains. This week, a jam-packed calendar awaits.

President Trump’s ongoing rhetoric challenging Fed independence may just be the start, as efforts to remove Chair Powell apparently ramp up, and the choice of his successor next May looms large.

Stocks rolled over once more yesterday as the dollar also faced headwinds, and gold notched new ATHs, amid a renewed souring in sentiment. Today, a busy calendar awaits on both sides of the Atlantic. By Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist

by Michael Brown - Senior Research Strategist Markets gave back most of Wednesday’s exuberance yesterday, as stocks slumped, and the dollar weakened, though Treasuries sold-off further. Today, UK GDP & US consumer sentiment highlight the docket.

Gold remains not just the best-performing asset class in 2025 – certainly on a risk-adjusted basis – but is also the more obvious buy-on-dips play from investment managers and swing CFD traders.

The S&P slumped into a correction last week as trade policy uncertainty remained elevated, and worries over the US economy persisted. This week, a central bank bonanza, and a busy data docket, await.

Markets were again choppy yesterday amid a barrage of contradictory headlines from the Oval Office. Today, last month’s US CPI figures stand as the data highlight.

Sentiment remained sour to start the week as US data continued to disappoint, denting stocks and the dollar, but sparking haven demand for Treasuries. Today, a quiet docket awaits.

Gold at a crossroads: range-bound or breakout ahead?

Stocks slumped and havens rallied as the week wrapped up on Friday amid jitters over US economic outperformance, while another quiet data docket awaits this week, with Nvidia earnings in focus.

by Chris Weston, Head of Research

President Trump’s first week in office left market participants largely unperturbed, though the week ahead brings not only another spell of headline-watching, but also a busy calendar of policy decisions, and corporate earnings.

Daily Market Thoughts - by Michael Brown, Senior Resea

by Michael Brown - Senior Research Strategist China was in the headlines yesterday, both amid rising stimulus expectations, and an apparent investigation into Nvidia. Today, a quiet docket awaits.

Stocks notched a sixth straight weekly gain last week, the best run of the year so far, while gold ran to a new record high, as the dollar remains firm. A quiet docket lies ahead today.

Soft, albeit weather-distorted, jobless claims stole the limelight from a hot CPI print yesterday, with choppy trade seen across the board. Today, a busy docket awaits, as Q3 earnings season gets underway.

by Michael Brown - Senior Research Strategist

by Michael Brown - Senior Research Strategist - 11 Sept 2024

by Michael Brown - Senior Research Strategist 3 Sept 2024

By Michael Brown - Senior Research Strategist

By Michael Brown - Senior Research Strategist While futures, and rates markets, have repriced significantly since the March CPI report, it appears that said hawkish repricing has likely now run too far, too fast, particularly with options now even seeing a modest chance of a Fed hike by the end of the year.

By Dilin Wu, Research Strategist

The CNH has continue to soften recently, with USDCNH now trading north of the psychologically key 7.2 level, posing the question of whether the PBoC may be ready to take firmer action to prop up the currency.