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The Week Ahead: Powell’s Jackson Hole Pivot Reinforces the Fed Put
By Pepperstone
Market players spent much of last week positioning into Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, with risk trading poorly as traders cut back on core equity longs, lower-quality equity exposures, and reduced USD shorts and crypto positioning. Throughout much of last week, expectations had built that Chair Powell would align with the views expressed by Fed members Schmid, Bostic, and Hammock, who all voiced increased concern about inflation pulling away from the Fed’s 2% target, and along with the improved US PMI data, this was to be enough for traders to act.
Week ahead: Jackson Hole Symposium on the radar
By FP Markets
We have quite a busy slate of event risk to get our teeth into this week. In addition to the Jackson Hole Symposium, an update from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the minutes from the previous US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting claim some of the limelight, as well as inflation data, and manufacturing and services S&P Global PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indexes).
Why the Bitcoin price at 118K may be cheaper than it looks
By Deriv
Bitcoin has pulled back to around 118,800 after briefly breaking above 122,000 earlier this week. While some traders see this as a sign of short-term exhaustion, key valuation metrics suggest the market may be underpricing the asset’s long-term potential.
OEXN U.S. Inflation Data and Market Outlook
By OEXN
The latest U.S. inflation data came in unchanged from the previous period but below market expectations, reinforcing the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Following the release, the U.S. dollar weakened, although the move lacked the momentum seen after the Non-Farm Payrolls earlier this month.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: US Dollar is nearing a key support area at 147.00
By Octa
- The Yen extends gains for the second consecutive day, favoured by USD weakness.
- Moderate US inflation data boosted hopes of immediate cuts by the Fed, and sent the US Dollar tumbling
- USD/JPY might activate a Bearish Flag formation below 147.00
Index and Commodities Trading week beginning 11 / 08 / 2025
By FP Markets
XJO WEEKLY
Price structure: Outside range
The recent widening of weekly ranges, punctuated by two consecutive Weekly Outside Bars, signals a notable escalation in market indecision and volatility. This pattern reflects a heightened battle between buyers and sellers, each side probing for dominance but failing to secure lasting control, classic signs of a market at a potential inflection point. The support level at 8615 is now a critical hold for the Buyers to remain confident. Currently Company reporting is underway, when the general trend of results is determined traders should expect a volatile breakout from this current consolidation area.
Indicator: Relative strength 14: Momentum on hold
Relative strength has turned higher in line with the current movement in the Index and remains above the key 50 level. Only further movements higher towards the 70 level can set a continuing bullish signal for price movements.
The RSI turning further lower to move below the 50 level, is a strong indication is for negative momentum to develop leading to Up Trend failure and further declines.
Comments last week:- The Weekly inside range of 2 weeks ago has been followed by last weeks outside range closing near the low of the range. This presents a bearish setup on a break of 8615 point support. Buyers in the Bullish breakout are now faced with losses should the Index move lower. The next key support level is 8083 points. Although the market is dealing with the Macro news of Tariffs emanating from the US, the developing technical picture is Bearish until a closing price over 8776 points is registered showing buyers back in control.
XJO DAILY
Price structure: Bullish Flag developing
The Daily chart of the XJO200 has carved out a Bullish Reversal Pivot, suggesting the potential for price to break above the recent consolidation range. This pivot is not just a technical marker, it reflects a shift in market sentiment, where buyers are beginning to assert control after a period of equilibrium. Typically forms after a swing low rejection, in this case a retest of the 8615-level last Monday, often accompanied by a strong close near the high of the day as seen last Tuesday and Wednesday. This remains a bullish setup for traders working in the Daily time frame.
Indicator: Relative strength 14: Slowing momentum
The Relative strength Indicator (14) has been declining from price consolidation from below the 70 level and now moving lower indicating a loss of positive momentum within the 14 day look back period. This is typical of the RSI reading when price moves into consolidation. The impending move lower below the 50 level would indicate a loss of positive momentum and a sell signal.
Comments last week. The Pennant continuation pattern discussed last week is now better described as a consolidation range above 8615 and below the 8776 level. Last Friday set a reversal pivot point, an early developing sell signal to be confirmed with a further daily close below 8615 points. The final bar is a large range high to low; this also adds to the bearishness of the setup and the potential to retest the 8514 level during this trading week.
S&P 500 WEEKLY: Inside range
Key support remains at 8615 points, last week saw an inside range bar set, indicating buyer and sellers unable to take control of price direction. Without follow through lower from the outside range set two weeks ago, the market remains bullish, until the key Weekly support level of 6100 is broken to the downside. Top resistance is 6427 points a close over this level would be very Bullish in the direction of the current primary Up trend.
Indicator: Relative strength 14. Loss of momentum
As for continued bullish confirmation, a continuing movement back to higher levels of the 70 line on the RSI required. A continued directional move higher over the 70 level will indicate renewed strength and the potential for a renewed and continuing upside shift in momentum.
A reverse move back towards the 50 level would signal potential exhaustion among buyers, but without clear evidence of sellers stepping in, downside risks remain low.
Comments from last week
The outside range that closes on the low of the session, Opd, has a statistically significant outcome for indicating a high point and the beginning of a continued reversal lower. This, following the emergence of the 2 X number 3 bar early warning sessions of 4 and 3 weeks ago, supports the view a top may be in place. First support is the 6100-breakout level. The underlying primary trend remains up until a defined lower high is set in this weekly time frame.
SPX DAILY
Price structure: Retest 6427
The Daily chart of the S&P 500 reveals a notable pattern of overlapping price action—where successive bars intrude upon each other’s ranges—indicating a slow, methodical grind higher rather than impulsive momentum. This type of movement often reflects a market climbing a wall of worry, with buyers cautiously advancing while sellers remain present but not dominant. It’s a classic sign of a market lacking conviction yet still leaning bullish, often seen during low-volatility uptrends or in the latter stages of a rally.
This grind appears to be targeting a retest of the 6427 level, which has emerged as a critical resistance point following its role as the high of the recent weekly Outside Bar.
A breakout higher with expanding range and volume would suggest genuine strength.
Indicator: Relative strength 14.
The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) having moved strongly higher from the key 50 level turning in line with price action. If the RSI continues to rise from the recent point below the pivotal 50 level towards the 70 level, it will likely confirm a further Bullish outlook, leading to further UP side targets.
Comments from last week: The high Gap open and immediate sell down set an outside range last Thursday followed through by the Gap down on Friday. The Two large range bars indicate Buyers have lost control of price setting. The 6100-breakout level could be challenged this week, failure of the Index to hold this level may see a further retest of the 6020 Support/ Resistance level with the further potential to retest the 200 day moving average.
NASDAQ (100) DAILY Price structure: New high
The Nasdaq has surged to a new all-time high, a move set by the pivot reversal bar established last Monday. That bar marked a decisive inflection point in the index’s short-term trajectory, signalling a shift in control from Sellers to Buyers.
The reversal emerged after a brief sharp pullback into a minor support zone, where price had been compressing within a tight range. The bar itself displayed strong bullish intent
This breakout to new highs carries psychological and structural weight. Psychologically, all-time highs tend to attract momentum traders and institutional flows, as they represent uncharted territory devoid of overhead supply.
Structurally, the move confirms the validity of the pivot reversal as a launchpad, reinforcing the notion that buyers are willing to defend dips and press advantage when given the opportunity.
However, while the breakout is impressive, it’s worth noting the character of the move. If the ascent continues with expanding range and volume, it will point to a healthy high conviction move getting underway.
Indicator: Relative strength 14: Sell Signal
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has now turned sharply higher which signals increasing Bullish momentum. With the RSI falling from the 70 level a Divergence is complete, however it would serve as a strong Bearish indicator on a further decline, this is highlighting a loss of momentum may be underway as the market makes a sharp reversal, market participants cannot afford to overlook this outcome.
Comments from last week The Gap open last Thursday followed by the Gap down in last Friday’s trading session sets up the Index to trade lower out of the current ascending channel. First support remains at 22,133 points and further price targets into the 22,000-point open Gap area. From the emergence of this price channel in May25’ Daily price advances have been weak. The current 2 day move down has been achieved with 2 large range moves, profit taking may see the Index move lower to test the 200 day moving average.
USD Spot GOLD – DAILY:
Gold continues to consolidate beneath the formidable $3431 resistance level, a price zone that has repeatedly capped upward momentum and now serves as a structural ceiling.
Recently, price broke below a well-defined ascending trendline that had been supporting the advance for several weeks. At first glance, this breakdown appeared to signal a shift in tone, perhaps the beginning of a deeper correction. However, the market’s response was swift and telling. Immediate buying pressure emerged just beneath the trendline breach, resulting in the formation of a Pivot bar, a classic reversal structure characterized by the previous lower low and a strong close over the high. This bar didn’t just halt the decline, it reasserted bullish intent and lifted price back into the prior consolidation range.
This current consolidation phase is marked by a series of compressed bars and hesitant follow-through, suggesting a market in equilibrium, neither ready to capitulate nor yet prepared to break higher.
The proximity to the $3431 resistance also keeps the option open for further distribution.
Indicator: Relative Strength 14: Bullish momentum
The RSI has reversed back higher through the 50 level, just, this is turning into a Bullish reading. Should the RSI reading further increase in the coming week towards the 70 level this will reflect an outright Buy signal. Short term holders and traders should continue to monitor the RSI for a movement remaining above the 50 level as a Buy signal.
Comments from last week: The ascending pattern discussed in the past Weeks has now resolved into a simple trading range as price action moves past the key 2/3 point and trades below the ascending trendline.
Last Friday set a Bullish pivot point reversal with the potential to trade high higher in the early sessions this week. Traders should look for a retest of the $3431.0 resistance high following this current retest of the trendline.
AUD GOLD – DAILY: Pennant pattern.
Consolidation continues within the developing Pennant pattern. Traders should monitor this pattern for a close over the $5287 closing high as a signal of continued support. Australian Gold producers will be favoured on continuing strength is this chart.
Indicator: Relative Strength 14: Bearish
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing an upturn from the 60 level, and the reading remains above the key 50 midpoint. Momentum is slowly turning higher as the Pennant price pattern develops, a further close above the 70 level would indicate momentum has turned Bullish. Traders are advised to watch for any minor pullbacks as potential buying opportunities within this broader uptrend of Gold producers, as the overall market sentiment remains strongly in favour of continued gains.
Comments from last week. Further consolidation within the developing Pennant pattern. Traders should monitor this pattern for a close over the $5287 closing high as a signal of continued support. Australian Gold producers will remain under pressure as this consolidation takes place.
SILVER Price structure: Pivot reversal
From the observation last week, price has immediately reversed higher towards the $39.15 resistance level. This is a very positive outcome from the recent Fake out, FO, high point retracement. Silver remains within a strong Primary UP trend. Traders should look for a further close over the $39.15 level to confirm a continuation move is underway. USD Silver can develop into trading ranges.
Relative strength 14: Positive swing
The relative strength index (RSI) has moved higher to align with the Pivot reversal price rally from the $36.00 level. The current move higher has moved the RSI above the 50 level. This movement indicates a directional increase of momentum and sets a Bullish continuation signal.
Comments from last week. Failure of the $37.25 breakout level to provide support in this current Daily price decline may see Silver decline further to retest the $34.87 breakout level. As the current price declines have moved below the July 24th low the current move is now considered a corrective move as sellers take control of price direction.
BITCOIN
Bull Flag
The price action in Bitcoin continues to develop into a Bullish flag pattern as price grinds lower towards a retest of the $108,379 breakout level. A further close over $123,153 would signal a continuation of the underlying Primary UP trend.
A closing price below the breakout level of $108,379 would show sellers have price control, the current Bearish Wave pattern remains under watch.
Relative strength 14: Neutral
Relative Strength remains in sync with the underlying price movements. Although momentum is slowing in line with price consolidation the RSI remains above the key 50 level.
Comments from last week.
Currently Bitcoin is developing a bullish flag pattern, this will confirm as a breakout with a close over the $123,153 high however since the November 2024 impulsive breakout, Bitcoin has been forming higher highs and lower lows, a hallmark of a Bearish expanding wave pattern with the 5th wave still in development. Should price move below the $108,379 level the flag will have failed, offering sellers directional control to take price back to the $100,000 level.American exceptionalism is back as foreign inflows pour into US markets
By Deriv
Just when it looked like the narrative of US dominance was starting to fray - cue April’s market wobble, Trump’s tariff tantrums, and a dollar in decline - global investors pulled a sharp U-turn. In June alone, foreign buyers poured a record $51.1 billion into US stocks and bonds, reversing a rare retreat the month before.
It’s the kind of comeback that has Wall Street veterans buzzing and doomsayers scrambling. The S&P 500 is once again eyeing fresh highs, and talk of “American exceptionalism” isn’t just back - it’s booming. Whether it’s faith in the strength of US institutions, a bet on consumer resilience, or simply a global flight to safety, one thing’s clear: the world is still betting big on brand America.
But with tariffs looming, yields rising, and other markets gaining ground, the question is: Can the US keep the magic alive?
A record rebound in foreign capital inflows
April was messy. The S&P 500 flirted with bear market territory, the Nasdaq fell through it, and Treasury yields went on a rollercoaster as investors braced for a wave of uncertainty. Trump’s surprise return to tariff hikes - dubbed “Liberation Day” by traders - sparked fears of capital flight, currency instability, and a potential unraveling of US market supremacy.
And then, just weeks later, came the whiplash: $311 billion in net foreign inflows in May, the highest monthly total ever recorded. That followed a modest $14.2 billion outflow in April, making the turnaround even more dramatic.
The numbers don’t lie. For the 12 months through May, net foreign inflows are fast approaching the record $1.4 trillion peak seen in July 2023 - right when “American exceptionalism” last dominated headlines.
Source: LSEG & Yadeni Research, US Treasury
Why investors are flocking back to the US markets in 2025
Let’s break it down. What’s pulling all this foreign cash into US markets?
- Tariff shock therapy: The worst of Trump’s tariff threats are, for now, on hold. That pause has given markets time to breathe - and time for investors to snap up assets before things potentially escalate again.
- US consumer strength: Americans, somehow, are still spending. That’s propping up corporate earnings and fuelling optimism that the domestic economy can stay afloat even as global growth falters.
- The dollar and safe-haven appeal: Despite its recent slump, the dollar remains the world’s default safety blanket. With the World Bank forecasting just 2.3% global growth this year, investors are playing it safe - and US assets fit the bill.
- No real alternative: Europe’s in a slowdown. China’s recovery is patchy. When push comes to shove, the US still offers the deepest, most liquid financial markets on the planet.
As Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution put it: “Markets are far more accepting of all the ups and downs than people realise. US exceptionalism is alive and well.”
The Dollar's safe-haven status has been under threat
Of course, not all that glitters is gold. The dollar just clocked its worst first half in over 50 years.
Source: TradingView
At the same time, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have retaken prior highs, indexes in Europe and China have outperformed in recent months. There’s also the very real risk that ongoing trade negotiations could fall apart, triggering even higher tariffs down the line.
Then there’s the long-term picture. Critics like Ken Griffin argue the US is “tarnishing its brand” with erratic policy moves, while Deutsche Bank warns that the US’s structural edge - particularly the ability to finance cheaply through dollar dominance - is beginning to erode. Economist Jim Reid stated that they maintain a long-term negative outlook on the US dollar and anticipate a continued rise in US term premia.
Translation? Borrowing could get more expensive, and investors may not always be so forgiving.
The market’s mood right now
The mood right now is marked by relief and a renewed sense of confidence. While bond yields remain high, they’ve levelled off, and stocks are on the rise once more.
Crucially, any notion that global investors might turn their backs on the US has been firmly set aside, at least for now. Market veteran Ed Yardeni noted with a touch of irony that the latest Treasury data reaffirmed investors’ continued faith in the support of foreign buyers.
It’s a cheeky way of saying what many in the markets are thinking: when the chips are down, the world still chooses the US.
US markets 2025 outlook: Will the S&P 500 hit a new record?
That’s the trillion-dollar question. The ingredients are certainly in place:
- Record-breaking foreign inflows
- Easing tariff anxiety
- Earnings holding up
- A global economy still searching for footing
But the headwinds are real - high interest rates, policy unpredictability, and a crowded geopolitical calendar. If global investors get spooked again, this resurgence could quickly stall.
Still, for now, the stars seem to be aligning. The US is back in favour, the S&P 500 is climbing, and the narrative of American exceptionalism - once declared dead - is suddenly alive, well, and buying stocks.
At the time of writing, the S&P 500 price has retreated considerably even as significant capital inflows pour in. Volume bars show dominant buy pressure, with sellers offering some resistance, albeit without much conviction - hinting at a potential price reversal if sellers don’t offer much resistance. If we see an uptick, bulls could challenge the $6,435 price level, where the price has been rebuffed before. Conversely, should we see more downside, prices could find resistance at the $6,215 and $5,928 support levels.
Source: Deriv MT5Gold Outlook: Rate Cut Bets Rise, Tariff Uncertainty Reignite - Safe-Haven Demand Returns!
By Pepperstone
Driven by weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls, renewed trade tensions, and shifts within the Fed’s leadership, gold’s safe-haven appeal has notably strengthened. However, in the short term, technical resistance near $3,370 remains a key hurdle. With the ISM Services PMI and a flurry of Fed speeches scheduled this week, volatility could increase further.
OEXN: Ottawa: Canada-US trade agreement may still take weeks to finalize
By OEXN
President Trump recently increased tariffs on Canadian imports from 25% to 35% for all goods not covered by the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), citing Canada’s failure to curb fentanyl smuggling and ongoing trade barriers. This escalation came despite over 90% of Canadian exports entering the U.S. duty-free, affecting key sectors like steel, aluminum, and automobiles.
US payrolls surprise to the downside following Fed holding ground; BoE on course for another quarter
By FP Markets
Before we dive into the key event of the week, the downside surprise in the July US payrolls data deserves note. The release offered market participants a clear-cut opportunity to trade out of, which, let’s face it, has been few and far between of late, given global uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
The safe haven trade is not just about crisis anymore
By Deriv
Once upon a time, investors rushed to gold only when the world looked like it might catch fire. War, recession, a market meltdown - cue the stampede to safety. But lately, something curious is happening. Gold is climbing, the dollar is wobbling, and safe-haven demand is on the rise… while the headlines are, well, not exactly screaming doom.
NAGA Weekly Recap July 14 - 18, 2025
By Naga
Markets took a breather this week, moving mostly sideways as traders processed the latest economic data and waited for a stronger read on where global growth is headed. There’s still a mix of hope and caution out there—optimism about recovery, but inflation and sticky interest rates are keeping everyone on their toes.