Dollar Firms as Metals Slide Before FOMC Minutes | 17th February, 2026
Dollar Firms, Metals Slide
Global markets are tilting toward a risk-on tone as the US Dollar edges higher ahead of the release of the FOMC Minutes. The firmer Dollar is weighing on precious metals, with Gold retreating and Silver slipping toward the $76.00 level as investors trim defensive exposure. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil softens near $63.50 amid speculation of a potential OPEC+ output hike and renewed US-Iran discussions. In FX markets, the Euro remains under pressure, with EUR/USD trading below the mid-1.1800s and EUR/JPY sliding ahead of key German inflation and sentiment data.
Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast
Current Price and Context
Gold weakens as a firmer US Dollar and improving risk appetite dominate market sentiment ahead of the FOMC Minutes. The metal struggles to attract safe-haven flows despite lingering geopolitical concerns.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing tensions provide background support but lack fresh escalation.
US Economic Data: Resilient US data supports the Dollar and weighs on bullion.
FOMC Outcome: Traders await clarity on the Fed’s rate path, limiting aggressive positioning.
Trade Policy: Stable global trade conditions reduce urgency for defensive assets.
Monetary Policy: Rate-cut expectations remain supportive longer term but are losing short-term momentum.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Short-term bearish bias within broader consolidation.
Resistance: $5,020
Support: $4,950
Forecast: Further downside is possible unless the FOMC Minutes deliver a dovish surprise that pressures US yields.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: Mildly bearish near term.
Catalysts: FOMC minutes, US Treasury yields, USD direction.
Silver (XAG/USD) Forecast
Current Price and Context
Silver drops toward the $76.00 area as investors reduce exposure to precious metals ahead of the Fed minutes, mirroring Gold’s softness.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Limited safe-haven demand in the absence of fresh escalation.
US Economic Data: Stable US data supports the Dollar and dampens metals appetite.
FOMC Outcome: Policy uncertainty restrains upside momentum.
Trade Policy: Neutral trade backdrop provides little directional bias.
Monetary Policy: Prospects of easing later this year offer medium-term support.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Corrective pullback.
Resistance: $77.50
Support: $74.80
Forecast: Downside pressure may persist unless the Fed minutes weaken the Dollar significantly.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish.
Catalysts: FOMC minutes, gold performance, broader risk appetite.
WTI Crude Oil Forecast
Current Price and Context
WTI crude slips toward $63.50 as markets weigh the possibility of an OPEC+ output increase alongside potential US-Iran diplomatic developments.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: US-Iran talks could ease supply concerns.
US Economic Data: Growth outlook influences demand expectations.
FOMC Outcome: Dollar strength linked to Fed signals may impact oil pricing.
Trade Policy: Stable global trade conditions support demand outlook.
Monetary Policy: Rate expectations influence macro sentiment and energy demand projections.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Short-term bearish pressure.
Resistance: $65.20
Support: $62.80
Forecast: Risks tilt to the downside if supply expansion signals strengthen.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: Moderately bearish.
Catalysts: OPEC+ developments, US-Iran headlines, FOMC minutes, USD movement.
EUR/JPY Forecast
Current Price and Context
EUR/JPY falls below 181.50 as traders position ahead of German HICP inflation data and the ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Stable global backdrop limits strong safe-haven yen demand.
US Economic Data: Indirect influence via global yield dynamics.
FOMC Outcome: Fed tone may impact cross-asset risk sentiment.
Trade Policy: Neutral global trade flows provide limited direction.
Monetary Policy: Diverging ECB-BoJ expectations remain a structural driver.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Mild corrective decline.
Resistance: 182.30
Support: 180.80
Forecast: Further downside possible if German data disappoints and risk appetite softens.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: Slightly cautious.
Catalysts: German HICP, ZEW Survey, global risk trends.
EUR/USD Forecast
Current Price and Context
EUR/USD remains pressured below the mid-1.1800s, though downside momentum appears limited as traders await fresh catalysts from US and Eurozone data.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Contained tensions limit strong defensive Dollar flows.
US Economic Data: Stable inflation expectations support the Greenback.
FOMC Outcome: Minutes could shift rate cut expectations.
Trade Policy: Limited near-term impact on price action.
Monetary Policy: Diverging ECB-Fed outlook remains central.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bearish bias with consolidation characteristics.
Resistance: 1.1860
Support: 1.1780
Forecast: A sustained recovery requires a softer USD tone post-FOMC; otherwise, range-bound trade may continue.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: Neutral-to-bearish.
Catalysts: FOMC minutes, US yields, German data releases.
Wrap-Up
With the FOMC Minutes looming, markets appear positioned cautiously, favoring the Dollar and cyclical assets over traditional safe havens. A hawkish tone from the Fed could reinforce USD strength and extend pressure on metals, while any dovish signals may trigger a rebound in Gold and broader FX pairs. Until clearer policy guidance emerges, volatility is likely to remain elevated, particularly across commodities and major currency pairs sensitive to yield expectations.
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Publication date:
2026-02-17 08:19:38 (GMT)
