Terms of Trade Index

The Terms of Trade Index released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of balance amount between import and export. A positive value shows a trade surplus while a negative value shows a trade deficit. Any variation in the figures influences the domestic economy. If a steady demand in exchange for exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the NZD.

Most recent - Tuesday 3 March 2026 21:45

Previous
-2.1%
Revised
-
Forecast
-0.7%
Actual
3.7%

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for NZD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/NZD pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Terms of Trade Index was 3.7% against a forecast of -0.7%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Tuesday 3 March 2026 21:45
-0.7%
3.7%
Monday 1 December 2025 21:45
0.3%
-2.1%
Monday 1 September 2025 22:45
1.9%
4.1%
Monday 2 June 2025 22:45
3.1%
1.9%
Sunday 2 March 2025 21:45
1.1%
3.1%
Monday 2 December 2024 21:45
1.8%
2.4%
Monday 2 September 2024 22:45
2%
2%
Tuesday 4 June 2024 22:45
3.1%
5.1%
Sunday 3 March 2024 21:45
-0.2%
-7.8%
Sunday 3 December 2023 21:45
-1.9%
-0.6%
Sunday 3 September 2023 22:45
-1.3%
0.4%
Thursday 1 June 2023 22:45
-1.5%
-1.5%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been moderately bearish for NZD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Terms of Trade Index result:

PreviousLatest
Building Permits s.a. (MoM)Bullish change-4.5%1.9%
Retail Sales (QoQ)Bearish change1.9%0.9%
Retail Sales ex Autos (QoQ)Bullish change1.2%1.5%
ExportsBearish change$7.51B$6.21B
ImportsBearish change$7.6B$6.7B
Trade Balance NZD (YoY)(no change)$-2.3B$-2.3B
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision(no change)2.25%2.25%

About Terms of Trade Index

Country:New Zealand
Currency:NZD
Source:Stats NZ
Category:Capital Flows
Frequency:Quarterly
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