ECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations

ECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations is announced by the European Central Bank. Usually if the ECB is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the EUR. Likewise, if the ECB has a dovish view on the European economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.

Most recent - Thursday, 17 April 12:15

Previous
2.65%
Forecast
2.4%
Actual
2.4%

Next event - Thursday, 5 June 12:15

Previous
2.4%
Forecast
2.15%
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on EUR pairs is high.

The consensus forecast for ECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations is 2.15%.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for ECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations was 2.4% against a forecast of 2.4%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
17 April 2025 12:15
2.4%
2.4%
6 March 2025 13:15
2.65%
2.65%
30 January 2025 13:15
2.9%
2.9%
12 December 2024 13:15
3.15%
3.15%
17 October 2024 12:15
3.4%
3.4%
12 September 2024 12:15
3.65%
3.65%
18 July 2024 12:15
4.25%
4.25%
6 June 2024 12:15
4.25%
4.25%
11 April 2024 12:15
4.5%
4.5%
7 March 2024 13:15
4.5%
4.5%
25 January 2024 13:15
4.5%
4.5%
14 December 2023 13:15
4.5%
4.5%
26 October 2023 12:15
4.5%
4.5%
14 September 2023 12:15
4.25%
4.5%
27 July 2023 12:15
4.25%
4.25%
15 June 2023 12:15
4%
4%
4 May 2023 12:15
3.75%
3.75%
16 March 2023 13:15
3.5%
3.5%
2 February 2023 13:15
3%
3%
15 December 2022 13:15
2.5%
2.5%
27 October 2022 12:15
2%
2%
8 September 2022 12:15
1.25%
1.25%
21 July 2022 12:15
0.25%
0.5%
9 June 2022 11:45
0%
0%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been moderately bearish for EUR. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next ECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations result:

PreviousLatest
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)Bearish change1%0%
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Bearish change2.7%2.3%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)Bearish change0.6%0%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Bearish change2.2%1.9%
Unemployment RateBullish change6.3%6.2%
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBearish change48.848.3
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBearish change49.349.2
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBullish change48.150.5
Consumer Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0.1%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)(no change)2.1%2.1%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)Bearish change0.5%0.2%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Bearish change2.2%2.1%
Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)Bearish change2%1.9%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change1.9%1.7%
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(no change)0.3%0.3%
Gross Domestic Product (YoY)Bullish change0.6%0.7%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Bearish change2.2%1.9%
Retail Sales (MoM)Bearish change0.9%-1.1%
Retail Sales (YoY)Bearish change3.3%2.3%
Unemployment ChangeBearish change4K34K
Unemployment Rate s.a.(no change)6.3%6.3%
Business ClimateBullish change-0.66-0.55
Consumer Confidence(no change)-15.2-15.2
Economic Sentiment IndicatorBullish change93.694.8
Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)Bearish change0.9%0.6%
GfK Consumer Confidence SurveyBullish change-20.8-19.9
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)Bullish change0.2%0.4%
Gross Domestic Product (YoY)Bullish change-0.2%0%
Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY)Bullish change-0.4%-0.2%
IFO – Business ClimateBullish change86.987.5
IFO – Current AssessmentBearish change86.486.1
IFO – ExpectationsBullish change87.488.9
HCOB Composite PMIBearish change50.449.5
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBullish change4949.4
HCOB Services PMIBearish change50.148.9
HCOB Composite PMIBearish change50.148.6
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBullish change48.448.8
HCOB Services PMIBearish change4947.2
HCOB Composite PMIBullish change47.848
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBullish change48.749.5
HCOB Services PMIBullish change47.347.4

About ECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations

Country:Eurozone
Currency:EUR
Source:European Central Bank
Category:Interest Rates
Frequency:Weekly/week-based
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