Fed Interest Rate Decision

The US Federal Reserve has a policy meeting every five to eight weeks, and its single most significant decision is interest rates. A rise is taken to mean a healthy economy, and is bullish for USD. A rate cut sends the opposite signal. If the rate is left unchanged, the market can still be significantly removed by remarks during the subsequent FOMC Press Conference, starting 30 minutes after the rate announcement.

Most recent - Wednesday 31 July 2024 18:00

Previous
5.5%
Forecast
5.5%
Actual
5.5%

Next event - Wednesday 18 September 2024 18:00

Previous
5.5%
Forecast
5.25%
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

The consensus forecast for Fed Interest Rate Decision is 5.25%. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Fed Interest Rate Decision was 5.5% against a forecast of 5.5%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Wednesday 31 July 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 12 June 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 1 May 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 20 March 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 31 January 2024 19:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 13 December 2023 19:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 1 November 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 20 September 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 26 July 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 14 June 2023 18:00
5.25%
5.25%
Wednesday 3 May 2023 18:00
5.25%
5.25%
Wednesday 22 March 2023 18:00
5%
5%
Wednesday 1 February 2023 19:00
4.75%
4.75%
Wednesday 14 December 2022 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 2 November 2022 18:00
4%
4%
Wednesday 21 September 2022 18:00
3.25%
3.25%
Wednesday 27 July 2022 18:00
2.5%
2.5%
Wednesday 15 June 2022 18:00
1.5%
1.75%
Wednesday 4 May 2022 18:00
1%
1%
Wednesday 16 March 2022 18:00
0.5%
0.5%
Wednesday 26 January 2022 19:00
0.25%
0.25%
Wednesday 15 December 2021 19:00
0.25%
0.25%
Wednesday 3 November 2021 18:00
0.25%
0.25%
Wednesday 22 September 2021 18:00
-
0.25%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been moderately bullish for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Fed Interest Rate Decision result:

PreviousLatest
NY Empire State Manufacturing IndexBullish change-4.711.5
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change67.969
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBullish change3%3.1%
Monthly Budget StatementBearish change$-244B$-380B
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change228K230K
Producer Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0%0.2%
Producer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change2.1%1.7%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bullish change-0.2%0.3%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bullish change2.3%2.4%
Consumer Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.2%0.2%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change2.9%2.5%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(no change)3.2%3.2%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bullish change3.6%3.8%
Labor Force Participation Rate(no change)62.7%62.7%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change89K142K
U6 Underemployment RateBearish change7.8%7.9%
Unemployment RateBullish change4.3%4.2%
ISM Services Employment IndexBearish change51.150.2
ISM Services New Orders IndexBullish change52.453
ISM Services PMIBullish change51.451.5
ISM Services Prices PaidBullish change5757.3
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change54.154.6
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change232K227K
Nonfarm ProductivityBullish change2.3%2.5%
Unit Labor CostsBearish change0.9%0.4%
ADP Employment ChangeBearish change111K99K
Challenger Job CutsBullish change25.885K75.891K
Factory Orders (MoM)Bullish change-3.3%5%
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change7.91M7.673M
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change43.446
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBearish change47.444.6
ISM Manufacturing PMIBullish change46.847.2
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBullish change52.954

About Fed Interest Rate Decision

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:Federal Reserve
Category:Interest Rates
Frequency:Weekly/week-based
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