ADP Employment Change

Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Most recent - Wednesday 30 October 2024 12:15

Previous
159K
Revised
159K
Forecast
115K
Actual
233K

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Next event - Wednesday 4 December 2024 13:15

Previous
233K
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

There is no forecast value for ADP Employment Change yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for ADP Employment Change was 233K against a forecast of 115K.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Wednesday 30 October 2024 12:15
115K
233K
Wednesday 2 October 2024 12:15
120K
143K
Thursday 5 September 2024 12:15
145K
99K
Wednesday 31 July 2024 12:15
150K
122K
Wednesday 3 July 2024 12:15
160K
150K
Wednesday 5 June 2024 12:15
173K
152K
Wednesday 1 May 2024 12:15
175K
192K
Wednesday 3 April 2024 12:15
148K
184K
Wednesday 6 March 2024 13:15
150K
140K
Wednesday 31 January 2024 13:15
145K
107K
Thursday 4 January 2024 13:15
115K
164K
Wednesday 6 December 2023 13:15
130K
103K
Wednesday 1 November 2023 12:15
150K
113K
Wednesday 4 October 2023 12:15
153K
89K
Wednesday 30 August 2023 12:15
195K
177K
Wednesday 2 August 2023 12:15
189K
324K
Thursday 6 July 2023 12:15
228K
497K
Thursday 1 June 2023 12:15
170K
278K
Wednesday 3 May 2023 12:15
148K
296K
Wednesday 5 April 2023 12:15
200K
145K
Wednesday 8 March 2023 13:15
200K
242K
Wednesday 1 February 2023 13:15
178K
106K
Thursday 5 January 2023 13:15
150K
235K
Wednesday 30 November 2022 13:15
200K
127K
Wednesday 2 November 2022 12:15
195K
239K
Wednesday 5 October 2022 12:15
200K
208K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
288K
132K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
-
270K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
-
380K
Thursday 2 June 2022 12:15
300K
128K
Wednesday 4 May 2022 12:15
395K
247K
Wednesday 30 March 2022 12:15
450K
455K
Wednesday 2 March 2022 13:15
388K
475K
Wednesday 2 February 2022 13:15
207K
-301K
Wednesday 5 January 2022 13:15
400K
807K
Wednesday 1 December 2021 13:15
525K
534K

Economic context

Recent economic data has been moderately bullish for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next ADP Employment Change result:

PreviousLatest
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change43.944.4
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change46.147.1
ISM Manufacturing PMIBearish change47.246.5
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBullish change48.354.8
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bullish change0.3%0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bullish change3.9%4%
Labor Force Participation RateBearish change62.7%62.6%
Nonfarm PayrollsBearish change223K12K
U6 Underemployment Rate(no change)7.7%7.7%
Unemployment Rate(no change)4.1%4.1%
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBearish change46.641.6
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(no change)2.7%2.7%
Employment Cost IndexBearish change0.9%0.8%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change228K216K
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.1%0.2%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change2.2%2.1%
Personal Income (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Personal SpendingBullish change0.3%0.5%
Challenger Job CutsBearish change72.821K55.597K
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bullish change0.6%7.4%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bearish change2.8%2.2%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBearish change3%2.8%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBearish change2.5%1.8%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bearish change2.5%1.5%
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change7.861M7.443M
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change68.970.5
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation(no change)3%3%
Durable Goods Orders(no change)-0.8%-0.8%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBullish change-1.3%-1.1%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBearish change0.6%0.4%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change0.3%0.5%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-2.3%4.1%
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change5454.3
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBullish change47.347.8
S&P Global Services PMIBullish change55.255.3
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change242K227K
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-2%-1%

About ADP Employment Change

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:ADP Research Institute
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Monthly
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