ADP Employment Change

Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Most recent - Wednesday 5 February 2025 13:15

Previous
176K
Revised
176K
Forecast
150K
Actual
183K

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Next event - Wednesday 5 March 2025 13:15

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

There is no forecast value for ADP Employment Change yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for ADP Employment Change was 183K against a forecast of 150K.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Wednesday 5 February 2025 13:15
150K
183K
Wednesday 8 January 2025 13:15
140K
122K
Wednesday 4 December 2024 13:15
150K
146K
Wednesday 30 October 2024 12:15
115K
233K
Wednesday 2 October 2024 12:15
120K
143K
Thursday 5 September 2024 12:15
145K
99K
Wednesday 31 July 2024 12:15
150K
122K
Wednesday 3 July 2024 12:15
160K
150K
Wednesday 5 June 2024 12:15
173K
152K
Wednesday 1 May 2024 12:15
175K
192K
Wednesday 3 April 2024 12:15
148K
184K
Wednesday 6 March 2024 13:15
150K
140K
Wednesday 31 January 2024 13:15
145K
107K
Thursday 4 January 2024 13:15
115K
164K
Wednesday 6 December 2023 13:15
130K
103K
Wednesday 1 November 2023 12:15
150K
113K
Wednesday 4 October 2023 12:15
153K
89K
Wednesday 30 August 2023 12:15
195K
177K
Wednesday 2 August 2023 12:15
189K
324K
Thursday 6 July 2023 12:15
228K
497K
Thursday 1 June 2023 12:15
170K
278K
Wednesday 3 May 2023 12:15
148K
296K
Wednesday 5 April 2023 12:15
200K
145K
Wednesday 8 March 2023 13:15
200K
242K
Wednesday 1 February 2023 13:15
178K
106K
Thursday 5 January 2023 13:15
150K
235K
Wednesday 30 November 2022 13:15
200K
127K
Wednesday 2 November 2022 12:15
195K
239K
Wednesday 5 October 2022 12:15
200K
208K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
288K
132K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
-
270K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
-
380K
Thursday 2 June 2022 12:15
300K
128K
Wednesday 4 May 2022 12:15
395K
247K
Wednesday 30 March 2022 12:15
450K
455K
Wednesday 2 March 2022 13:15
388K
475K

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next ADP Employment Change result:

PreviousLatest
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change71.167.8
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBullish change3.2%3.3%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bullish change0.3%0.5%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bullish change3.9%4.1%
Labor Force Participation RateBullish change62.5%62.6%
Nonfarm PayrollsBearish change307K143K
U6 Underemployment Rate(no change)7.5%7.5%
Unemployment RateBullish change4.1%4%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change208K219K
Nonfarm ProductivityBearish change2.2%1.2%
Unit Labor CostsBullish change0.8%3%
Challenger Job CutsBullish change38.792K49.795K
ISM Services Employment IndexBullish change51.352.3
ISM Services New Orders IndexBearish change54.451.3
ISM Services PMIBearish change5452.8
ISM Services Prices PaidBearish change64.460.4
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change52.452.7
Factory Orders (MoM)Bearish change-0.4%-0.9%
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change8.156M7.6M
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change45.450.3
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change52.155.1
ISM Manufacturing PMIBullish change49.350.9
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBullish change52.554.9
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBullish change36.939.5
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.1%0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(no change)2.8%2.8%
Employment Cost IndexBullish change0.8%0.9%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.1%0.3%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.4%2.6%
Personal Income (MoM)Bullish change0.3%0.4%
Personal SpendingBullish change0.6%0.7%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bearish change1.6%-5.5%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bullish change2.2%2.5%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBearish change3.1%2.3%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBullish change1.9%2.2%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change223K207K
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bullish change1.5%2.3%
Fed Interest Rate Decision(no change)4.5%4.5%
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0.3%
Durable Goods OrdersBearish change-2%-2.2%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBearish change-1.3%-2.4%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBullish change-0.2%0.3%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBearish change0.9%0.5%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change9.6%3.6%

About ADP Employment Change

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:ADP Research Institute
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Monthly
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