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Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

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Most recent - Wednesday 15 January 2025 13:30

3.3%

Forecast

3.3%

Actual

3.2%

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Next event - Wednesday 12 February 2025 13:30

3.2%

Forecast

3.1%

Actual

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

The consensus forecast for Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) is 3.1%. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) was 3.2% against a forecast of 3.3%.

Past events

Date

Forecast

Actual

Wednesday 15 January 2025 13:30

3.3%

3.2%

Wednesday 11 December 2024 13:30

3.3%

Wednesday 13 November 2024 13:30

3.3%

Thursday 10 October 2024 12:30

3.2%

3.3%

Wednesday 11 September 2024 12:30

3.2%

Wednesday 14 August 2024 12:30

3.2%

Thursday 11 July 2024 12:30

3.4%

3.3%

Wednesday 12 June 2024 12:30

3.5%

3.4%

Wednesday 15 May 2024 12:30

3.6%

Wednesday 10 April 2024 12:30

3.7%

3.8%

Tuesday 12 March 2024 12:30

3.7%

3.8%

Tuesday 13 February 2024 13:30

3.7%

3.9%

Thursday 11 January 2024 13:30

3.8%

3.9%

Tuesday 12 December 2023 13:30

Tuesday 14 November 2023 13:30

4.1%

Thursday 12 October 2023 12:30

4.1%

Wednesday 13 September 2023 12:30

4.3%

Thursday 10 August 2023 12:30

4.8%

4.7%

Wednesday 12 July 2023 12:30

4.8%

Tuesday 13 June 2023 12:30

5.3%

Wednesday 10 May 2023 12:30

5.5%

Wednesday 12 April 2023 12:30

5.6%

Tuesday 14 March 2023 12:30

5.5%

Tuesday 14 February 2023 13:30

5.5%

5.6%

Thursday 12 January 2023 13:30

5.7%

Tuesday 13 December 2022 13:30

6.1%

Thursday 10 November 2022 13:30

6.5%

6.3%

Thursday 13 October 2022 12:30

6.5%

6.6%

Tuesday 13 September 2022 12:30

6.1%

6.3%

Wednesday 10 August 2022 12:30

6.1%

5.9%

Wednesday 13 July 2022 12:30

5.7%

5.9%

Friday 10 June 2022 12:30

5.9%

Wednesday 11 May 2022 12:30

6.2%

Tuesday 12 April 2022 12:30

6.6%

6.5%

Thursday 10 March 2022 13:30

6.4%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) result:

		Previous	Latest
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index	Bearish change	71.1	67.8
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation	Bullish change	3.2%	3.3%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	Bullish change	0.3%	0.5%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)	Bullish change	3.9%	4.1%
Labor Force Participation Rate	Bullish change	62.5%	62.6%
Nonfarm Payrolls	Bearish change	307K	143K
U6 Underemployment Rate	(no change)	7.5%	7.5%
Unemployment Rate	Bullish change	4.1%	4%
Initial Jobless Claims	Bearish change	208K	219K
Nonfarm Productivity	Bearish change	2.2%	1.2%
Unit Labor Costs	Bullish change	0.8%	3%
Challenger Job Cuts	Bullish change	38.792K	49.795K
ISM Services Employment Index	Bullish change	51.3	52.3
ISM Services New Orders Index	Bearish change	54.4	51.3
ISM Services PMI	Bearish change	54	52.8
ISM Services Prices Paid	Bearish change	64.4	60.4
S&P Global Composite PMI	Bullish change	52.4	52.7
ADP Employment Change	Bullish change	176K	183K
Factory Orders (MoM)	Bearish change	-0.4%	-0.9%
JOLTS Job Openings	Bearish change	8.156M	7.6M
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index	Bullish change	45.4	50.3
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index	Bullish change	52.1	55.1
ISM Manufacturing PMI	Bullish change	49.3	50.9
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid	Bullish change	52.5	54.9
Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index	Bullish change	36.9	39.5
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)	Bullish change	0.1%	0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)	(no change)	2.8%	2.8%
Employment Cost Index	Bullish change	0.8%	0.9%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)	Bullish change	0.1%	0.3%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)	Bullish change	2.4%	2.6%
Personal Income (MoM)	Bullish change	0.3%	0.4%
Personal Spending	Bullish change	0.6%	0.7%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)	Bearish change	1.6%	-5.5%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)	Bullish change	2.2%	2.5%
Gross Domestic Product Annualized	Bearish change	3.1%	2.3%
Gross Domestic Product Price Index	Bullish change	1.9%	2.2%
Initial Jobless Claims	Bullish change	223K	207K
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)	Bullish change	1.5%	2.3%
Fed Interest Rate Decision	(no change)	4.5%	4.5%
Housing Price Index (MoM)	Bearish change	0.4%	0.3%
Durable Goods Orders	Bearish change	-2%	-2.2%
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense	Bearish change	-1.3%	-2.4%
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation	Bullish change	-0.2%	0.3%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft	Bearish change	0.9%	0.5%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)	Bearish change	9.6%	3.6%

About Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Country:	United States
Currency:	USD
Source:	US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Category:	Inflation
Frequency:	Monthly

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Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Most recent - Wednesday 15 January 2025 13:30

Next event - Wednesday 12 February 2025 13:30

Trading range

Trading range after each Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) event

Forecast history

Past events

Economic context

About Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Related events