Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

After publishing the GDP report, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data alongside the monthly changes in Personal Spending and Personal Income. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as their primary gauge of inflation. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD outperform its rivals as it would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance and vice versa.

Most recent - Thursday 31 October 2024 12:30

Previous
2.7%
Revised
-
Forecast
2.6%
Actual
2.7%

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Next event - Wednesday 27 November 2024 13:30

Previous
2.7%
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

There is no forecast value for Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) was 2.7% against a forecast of 2.6%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Thursday 31 October 2024 12:30
2.6%
2.7%
Friday 27 September 2024 12:30
2.7%
2.7%
Friday 30 August 2024 12:30
2.7%
2.6%
Friday 26 July 2024 12:30
2.5%
2.6%
Friday 28 June 2024 12:30
2.6%
2.6%
Friday 31 May 2024 12:30
2.8%
2.8%
Friday 26 April 2024 12:30
2.6%
2.8%
Friday 29 March 2024 12:30
2.8%
2.8%
Thursday 29 February 2024 13:30
2.8%
2.8%
Friday 26 January 2024 13:30
3%
2.9%
Friday 22 December 2023 13:30
3.3%
3.2%
Thursday 30 November 2023 13:30
3.5%
3.5%
Friday 27 October 2023 12:30
3.7%
3.7%
Friday 29 September 2023 12:30
3.9%
3.9%
Thursday 31 August 2023 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 28 July 2023 12:30
4.2%
4.1%
Friday 30 June 2023 12:30
4.7%
4.6%
Friday 26 May 2023 12:30
4.6%
4.7%
Friday 28 April 2023 12:30
4.5%
4.6%
Friday 31 March 2023 12:30
4.7%
4.6%
Friday 24 February 2023 13:30
4.3%
4.7%
Friday 27 January 2023 13:30
-
4.4%
Friday 23 December 2022 13:30
4.7%
4.7%
Thursday 1 December 2022 13:30
5%
5%
Friday 28 October 2022 12:30
5.2%
5.1%
Friday 30 September 2022 12:30
4.7%
4.9%
Friday 26 August 2022 12:30
4.7%
4.6%
Friday 29 July 2022 12:30
4.7%
4.8%
Thursday 30 June 2022 12:30
4.7%
4.7%
Friday 27 May 2022 12:30
4.9%
4.9%
Friday 29 April 2022 12:30
5.3%
5.2%
Thursday 31 March 2022 12:30
5.5%
5.4%
Friday 25 February 2022 13:30
5.1%
5.2%
Friday 28 January 2022 13:30
4.8%
4.9%
Thursday 23 December 2021 13:30
4.5%
4.7%
Wednesday 24 November 2021 15:00
4.1%
4.1%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been moderately bullish for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) result:

PreviousLatest
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change43.944.4
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change46.147.1
ISM Manufacturing PMIBearish change47.246.5
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBullish change48.354.8
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bullish change0.3%0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bullish change3.9%4%
Labor Force Participation RateBearish change62.7%62.6%
Nonfarm PayrollsBearish change223K12K
U6 Underemployment Rate(no change)7.7%7.7%
Unemployment Rate(no change)4.1%4.1%
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBearish change46.641.6
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Employment Cost IndexBearish change0.9%0.8%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change228K216K
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.1%0.2%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change2.2%2.1%
Personal Income (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Personal SpendingBullish change0.3%0.5%
Challenger Job CutsBearish change72.821K55.597K
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bullish change0.6%7.4%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bearish change2.8%2.2%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBearish change3%2.8%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBearish change2.5%1.8%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bearish change2.5%1.5%
ADP Employment ChangeBullish change159K233K
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change7.861M7.443M
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change68.970.5
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation(no change)3%3%
Durable Goods Orders(no change)-0.8%-0.8%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBullish change-1.3%-1.1%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBearish change0.6%0.4%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change0.3%0.5%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-2.3%4.1%
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change5454.3
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBullish change47.347.8
S&P Global Services PMIBullish change55.255.3
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change242K227K
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-2%-1%

About Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Category:Inflation
Frequency:Monthly

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